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Rollout and variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 20 September 2014, at 7:22 p.m.

In Response To: Clear the tough point? (Timothy Chow)

I like to think of this as a "phantom 2-4 backgame." Blue should just accept that busting White's timing (and/or completing the prime) is unlikely, and should just try to bear in safely. See the variants below to get a sense of the crossover point.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Unlimited Game
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bB-CDBBB-----a-a-ccbba--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 46

1.Rollout17/3 7/1eq: +0.635
Player:
Opponent:
82.47% (G:4.25% B:0.05%)
17.53% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.631...+0.640) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: +0.583 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
80.21% (G:3.98% B:0.06%)
19.79% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.579...+0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Variant 1





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
Unlimited Game
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bB-CDBBB---------cccbb--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 46

1.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: +0.566
Player:
Opponent:
79.67% (G:3.52% B:0.04%)
20.33% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.562...+0.571) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 7/1eq: +0.555 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
78.96% (G:4.38% B:0.07%)
21.04% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.551...+0.560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Variant 2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bB-BCBDB-------aaccbba--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 46

1.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: +0.530
Player:
Opponent:
78.18% (G:3.72% B:0.06%)
21.82% (G:1.32% B:0.02%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.525...+0.534) - [60.7%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout17/3 7/1eq: +0.529 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
77.93% (G:3.88% B:0.06%)
22.07% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.524...+0.533) - [39.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


If we exorcise the phantom then the decision is much closer.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Unlimited Game
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBCBBB-----a-a-ccbba--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 46

1.Rollout17/3 7/1eq: +0.757
Player:
Opponent:
87.26% (G:5.17% B:0.06%)
12.74% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.754...+0.761) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: +0.747 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
86.94% (G:5.13% B:0.06%)
13.06% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.743...+0.751) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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