I like to think of this as a "phantom 2-4 backgame." Blue should just accept that busting White's timing (and/or completing the prime) is unlikely, and should just try to bear in safely. See the variants below to get a sense of the crossover point.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 113 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 93
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bB-CDBBB-----a-a-ccbba--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 46 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0.635 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.47% (G:4.25% B:0.05%)
17.53% (G:0.74% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.631...+0.640) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 9/3 | eq: +0.583 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.21% (G:3.98% B:0.06%)
19.79% (G:1.11% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.579...+0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 1
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 101 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 93
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bB-CDBBB---------cccbb--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 46 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/5 9/3 | eq: +0.566 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.67% (G:3.52% B:0.04%)
20.33% (G:0.89% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.562...+0.571) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0.555 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.96% (G:4.38% B:0.07%)
21.04% (G:1.05% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.551...+0.560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 110 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bB-BCBDB-------aaccbba--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 46 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/5 9/3 | eq: +0.530 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.18% (G:3.72% B:0.06%)
21.82% (G:1.32% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.525...+0.534) - [60.7%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0.529 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.93% (G:3.88% B:0.06%)
22.07% (G:1.15% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.524...+0.533) - [39.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
If we exorcise the phantom then the decision is much closer.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 113 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bBBBCBBB-----a-a-ccbba--:1:-1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 46 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0.757 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.26% (G:5.17% B:0.06%)
12.74% (G:0.40% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.754...+0.761) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 9/3 | eq: +0.747 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.94% (G:5.13% B:0.06%)
13.06% (G:0.49% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.743...+0.751) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10