I like to think of this as a "phantom 24 backgame." Blue should just accept that busting White's timing (and/or completing the prime) is unlikely, and should just try to bear in safely. See the variants below to get a sense of the crossover point.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 113  Unlimited Game  pip: 93 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCDBBBaaccbba:1:1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 46 
1.  Rollout^{1}  7/3 7/1  eq: +0.635 
 Player: Opponent:  82.47% (G:4.25% B:0.05%) 17.53% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.631...+0.640)  [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  9/5 9/3  eq: +0.583 (0.053) 
 Player: Opponent:  80.21% (G:3.98% B:0.06%) 19.79% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.579...+0.587)  [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 1
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 101  Unlimited Game  pip: 93 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCDBBBcccbb:1:1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 46 
1.  Rollout^{1}  9/5 9/3  eq: +0.566 
 Player: Opponent:  79.67% (G:3.52% B:0.04%) 20.33% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.562...+0.571)  [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  7/3 7/1  eq: +0.555 (0.011) 
 Player: Opponent:  78.96% (G:4.38% B:0.07%) 21.04% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.551...+0.560)  [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 2
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 110  Unlimited Game  pip: 98 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBBCBDBaaccbba:1:1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 46 
1.  Rollout^{1}  9/5 9/3  eq: +0.530 
 Player: Opponent:  78.18% (G:3.72% B:0.06%) 21.82% (G:1.32% B:0.02%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.525...+0.534)  [60.7%] Duration: 4 minutes 00 second 

2.  Rollout^{1}  7/3 7/1  eq: +0.529 (0.001) 
 Player: Opponent:  77.93% (G:3.88% B:0.06%) 22.07% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)  Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.524...+0.533)  [39.3%] Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
If we exorcise the phantom then the decision is much closer.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 113  Unlimited Game  pip: 90 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBBBCBBBaaccbba:1:1:1:46:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 46 
1.  Rollout^{1}  7/3 7/1  eq: +0.757 
 Player: Opponent:  87.26% (G:5.17% B:0.06%) 12.74% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)  Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.754...+0.761)  [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  9/5 9/3  eq: +0.747 (0.010) 
 Player: Opponent:  86.94% (G:5.13% B:0.06%) 13.06% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.743...+0.751)  [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10