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OT: Am I the only one here who thinks poker is almost all pure luck?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: OT: Am I the only one here who thinks poker is almost all pure luck? (Fender)
Date: Monday, 22 September 2014, at 11:38 p.m.
There are several ways to approach this question.
1. Ignore any facts and treat the question as a matter of opinion. This is probably the most fun, and if your goal is to argue endlessly, is clearly the best option.
2. Treat it as a purely legal issue; that is, it's luck if a judge says it's luck and skill if a judge says it's skill. For example, in 2012, New York judge ruled that poker is more a game of skill than of chance. There was also a recent ruling in Amsterdam ot the same effect. Of course one of the problems is that the existence of vested interests sometimes make it hard to discern the truth. Professional poker players will argue vehemently in court that it is a game of skill so that they can keep playing despite legal restrictions on gambling. Privately, they may try to convince you that it's all luck so that you, a fish, can be suckered in to losing your money to them.
3. Try to analyze the game mathematically. Simplified models of poker have been analyzed in detail and it is clear in those cases that there is considerable skill involved. The advantage of the simplified model is that you can quantify the amount of skill and arrive at definite conclusions. The disadvantage, of course, is that one can question whether the simplified model accurately captures real poker. Also, one has to examine such analyses critically. Not all studies are carried out in a scientifically sound manner.
4. Look at the statistics of actual results yourself. This is the approach that I know least about, not being a poker player myself. How much statistical information is there about tournament poker? How amenable is it to statistical analysis? My impression is that there isn't enough easily accessible data to arrive at strong statistical conclusions (and that the available data is difficult to analyze because of the nature of tournament poker as a game that is played for vastly varying stakes and with multiple players at the same time), but maybe I'm wrong.
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