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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 24 September 2014, at 1:54 p.m.

In Response To: Bear in position vs. 3 anchor (John O'Hagan)

OTB, I didn't even consider the correct play of 6/1 6/4. Leaving the 6-7-8 points all stripped along with the uncovered blot on the deuce looked terrible so I decided it was between 6/1 4/2 or the loose hitting play. I figured that the non-hitting play won more games but the loose hit more gammons and wasn't sure if the extra g's were enough so I chosed not to hit. I also figured that covering the deuce would be helpful if Black couldn't roll a 4 or higher and I then rolled a PoH number. Since this was a money game and Black owned the cube, the ratio of extra net gammons/extra losses had to be somewhat over 2/1 for the hitting play to be correct (somwhat over 2/1 since cube ownership will enhance Black's wins). How much over 2/1 this ratio has to be has never been clear to me. Here it's around 16%/6% which is well over 2/1 but the RO still shows hitting to be slightly worse than 6/1 4/2.

Looking at the correct play of 6/1 6/4, we see that only leaves two blotting numbers (43) although 54 and 52 are pretty bad since they force you to abandon the 6-point. By comparison, 6/1 4/2 leaves 8 blotting numbers (55,54,52,44,& probably 43).

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 71
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-CAbCaDBB------a-b-babbb--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
to play 52

1.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.385
Player:
Opponent:
70.44% (G:7.85% B:0.03%)
29.56% (G:3.15% B:0.11%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.380...+0.390) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 4/2eq: +0.337 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
68.68% (G:7.15% B:0.04%)
31.32% (G:3.10% B:0.10%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.333...+0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout17/2 7/5* eq: +0.317 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
62.64% (G:24.56% B:0.37%)
37.36% (G:4.14% B:0.13%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.310...+0.324) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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