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Quick Quiz #2 Answers

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Friday, 26 September 2014, at 2:05 a.m.

In Response To: Quick Quiz #2 (Ian Dunstan)

I was concerned that I made the first quiz a bit hard, so this one was deliberately easier, in hindsight it was too easy except for one problem.

1) The ugly stack on the midpoint has to wait




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
1 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A---aDaB---cG---d-ea----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout1Bar/21 13/5* 5/1eq: +0.079
Player:
Opponent:
53.95% (G:18.78% B:0.97%)
46.05% (G:10.61% B:0.81%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.073...+0.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9(3)eq: -0.066 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
46.70% (G:10.65% B:0.64%)
53.30% (G:13.39% B:1.41%)
Conf.: 0.006 (-0.072...-0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 49 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

2) Only really 2 rolls to consider again




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 150
5 point match
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBBBAa-Aaaa---bbcbAB--:1:-1:1:61:0:1:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout123/22 7/1* eq: +1.095
Player:
Opponent:
66.70% (G:54.75% B:17.51%)
33.30% (G:11.81% B:2.93%)
Conf.: 0.017 (+1.078...+1.112) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout123/22 23/17eq: +0.934 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:
66.44% (G:46.28% B:13.67%)
33.56% (G:9.63% B:1.70%)
Conf.: 0.015 (+0.919...+0.949) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1150556
First 4 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

3) This problem was the one that perplexed me the most. It came up between two Giants recently




White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 149
9 point match
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b-bD-F----DA--cacb-b---:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:9:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout114/4 6/1(2)eq: -0.018
Player:
Opponent:
50.44% (G:7.71% B:0.22%)
49.56% (G:16.09% B:0.40%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.031...-0.005) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout114/4 13/8 6/1eq: -0.053 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
50.10% (G:6.39% B:0.16%)
49.90% (G:16.70% B:0.36%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.066...-0.040) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout114/4 13/8(2)eq: -0.056 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:6.32% B:0.16%)
50.07% (G:16.18% B:0.35%)
Conf.: 0.014 (-0.069...-0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout213/8(2) 6/1(2)eq: -0.282 (-0.264)
Player:
Opponent:
43.13% (G:6.48% B:0.19%)
56.87% (G:20.04% B:0.50%)
Conf.: 0.029 (-0.311...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout213/8(4)eq: -0.411 (-0.393)
Player:
Opponent:
41.15% (G:4.37% B:0.14%)
58.85% (G:21.36% B:0.40%)
Conf.: 0.034 (-0.445...-0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

4) I talked myself out of doubling this otb. O'Hagan's Rule is something I didn't know until now and that would have been useful




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 76
3 point match
pip: 71
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DBAaBB--BBa-------abbccb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.87% (G:2.06% B:0.02%) 68.40% (G:2.27% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.13% (G:1.77% B:0.03%) 31.60% (G:2.12% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.362 +0.931
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.583 (-0.073)0.005 (+0.578..+0.588)
Double/Take:+0.6560.006 (+0.650..+0.662)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.344)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91660883
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

5) Easy, not making the point because you think you will have to clear it soon is the mistake




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 80
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-C-BBbB-CC--b---a--cbbab--:0:0:1:21:2:0:1:3:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: +0.735
Player:
Opponent:
86.77% (G:3.21% B:0.01%)
13.23% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.733...+0.737) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout19/6eq: +0.676 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
83.82% (G:4.24% B:0.02%)
16.18% (G:0.56% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.674...+0.678) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91660883
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I'll do some harder problems next time ;)

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