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Quick Quiz #2 Answers

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Friday, 26 September 2014, at 2:05 a.m.

In Response To: Quick Quiz #2 (Ian Dunstan)

I was concerned that I made the first quiz a bit hard, so this one was deliberately easier, in hindsight it was too easy except for one problem.

1) The ugly stack on the midpoint has to wait

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 1 point match pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A---aDaB---cG---d-ea----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 44

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/5* 5/1	eq: +0.079
	Player: Opponent: 53.95% (G:18.78% B:0.97%) 46.05% (G:10.61% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.073...+0.085) - [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 43 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/9(3)	eq: -0.066 (-0.145)
	Player: Opponent: 46.70% (G:10.65% B:0.64%) 53.30% (G:13.39% B:1.41%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.072...-0.060) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 49 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11290312 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

2) Only really 2 rolls to consider again

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 150 5 point match pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBBBAa-Aaaa---bbcbAB--:1:-1:1:61:0:1:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	23/22 7/1*	eq: +1.095
	Player: Opponent: 66.70% (G:54.75% B:17.51%) 33.30% (G:11.81% B:2.93%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+1.078...+1.112) - [100.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/22 23/17	eq: +0.934 (-0.161)
	Player: Opponent: 66.44% (G:46.28% B:13.67%) 33.56% (G:9.63% B:1.70%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.919...+0.949) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1150556 First 4 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

3) This problem was the one that perplexed me the most. It came up between two Giants recently

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 149 9 point match pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b-bD-F----DA--cacb-b---:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:9:10
Blue to play 55

1.	Rollout1	14/4 6/1(2)	eq: -0.018
	Player: Opponent: 50.44% (G:7.71% B:0.22%) 49.56% (G:16.09% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.031...-0.005) - [100.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	14/4 13/8 6/1	eq: -0.053 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 50.10% (G:6.39% B:0.16%) 49.90% (G:16.70% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.066...-0.040) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
3.	Rollout1	14/4 13/8(2)	eq: -0.056 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 49.93% (G:6.32% B:0.16%) 50.07% (G:16.18% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.069...-0.042) - [0.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 59 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/8(2) 6/1(2)	eq: -0.282 (-0.264)
	Player: Opponent: 43.13% (G:6.48% B:0.19%) 56.87% (G:20.04% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.029 (-0.311...-0.254) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 02 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/8(4)	eq: -0.411 (-0.393)
	Player: Opponent: 41.15% (G:4.37% B:0.14%) 58.85% (G:21.36% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.034 (-0.445...-0.377) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11290312 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge 2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11290312 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

4) I talked myself out of doubling this otb. O'Hagan's Rule is something I didn't know until now and that would have been useful

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 76 3 point match pip: 71 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DBAaBB--BBa-------abbccb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.87% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)	68.40% (G:2.27% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.13% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)	31.60% (G:2.12% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.362	+0.931
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.583 (-0.073)	±0.005 (+0.578..+0.588)
Double/Take:	+0.656	±0.006 (+0.650..+0.662)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.344)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91660883 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

5) Easy, not making the point because you think you will have to clear it soon is the mistake

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 3 point match Crawford pip: 80 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-C-BBbB-CC--b---a--cbbab--:0:0:1:21:2:0:1:3:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	9/7 8/7	eq: +0.735
	Player: Opponent: 86.77% (G:3.21% B:0.01%) 13.23% (G:0.36% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.733...+0.737) - [100.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/6	eq: +0.676 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 83.82% (G:4.24% B:0.02%) 16.18% (G:0.56% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.674...+0.678) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91660883 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I'll do some harder problems next time ;)

Messages In This Thread

• Quick Quiz #2
  Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 24 September 2014, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Quick Quiz #2
    Stick -- Wednesday, 24 September 2014, at 4:08 p.m.
    • Quick Quiz #2
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 24 September 2014, at 4:37 p.m.
  • Quick Quiz #2
    Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 24 September 2014, at 6:26 p.m.
  • Quick Quiz #2 Answers
    Ian Dunstan -- Friday, 26 September 2014, at 2:05 a.m.