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BGonline.org Forums
Win by 2.
Posted By: Rick Janowski In Response To: Win by 2. (Bob Koca)
Date: Saturday, 27 September 2014, at 7:47 p.m.
This would have the effect of changing the current match equity table to a significant extent. All the post Crawford match equities would change, favouring the leader rather than the trailer (the match leader only has to win one point as before, but the trailer needs one extra point than before). Also, as you intimate a new post-Crawford -2-2 score is created. Interestingly, dropping a double at this new score doesn't result in match loss, thus recreating cube ownership value. The take point at -2-2 post Crawford is about 32% (assuming passing doesn't create a new Crawford score) so the strategy should be virtually identical to -2-2 in normal rules backgammon.
Because the post Crawford scores favour the leader, the Crawford scores will do the same. The effect at -2-2 pre-Crawford is to make the take-point close to 25% rather the normal 32%. In the opening part of the game this means market losers are less likely. However it also means the initial doubling point will be maybe 5% lower than normal. In practice, I do not believe there will be any change to the normal optimal strategy of doubling at the first instance. However, in sub-optimal games, the game favourite is less like to reach too good positions because the safety net of the double-out isn't as secure. Moreover, the game-underdog is more likely to kill gammons by doubling, because of the lower doubling points.
If there is a skill advantage, the superior player would generally be less inclined to double earlier because with the average number of games after the -2-2 score will increase, allowing opportunity for the skill differential to eke out a greater equity edge. Of course, the converse is true for the trailer.
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