Will the real takepoint please stand up?
Posted By: bill calton
Date: Monday, 6 October 2014, at 3:39 p.m.
Rereading an article on Match Equity by MCG and am completely confused.
He writes about TP for 4 away 4 away. I’d like to discuss just this one score, to keep this as simple as possible.
Takepoint = (Pass – take&lose) / (take&win – take&lose)
TP = (43 -33) / (67 -33) = 10 / 34 = 29%
My undersanding is this ignores gammons for both sides and also assumes taker never recubes. Hence the term DEAD cube.
If I use a match equity table and calculate takepoints at the table then I will be generating this Dead cube number.
MCG introduces Fully Live cube. My understanding: You as taker turn the game around and always get an efficeient recube in, where opponent is indifferent between taking and dropping.
Fully Live TP = (Dead takepoint) * (cash point)
In this case if the taker recubes then opponent should drop at match equity 33% so our cash point as taker is 67%
So Fully live TP = 29% * 67% = 19%
REAL TAKEPOINT ??
So I am on track so far …
The DEAD takepoint assumes you never recube
While the FULLY LIVE takepoint assumes you always get an efficient recube.
Since neither extreme is too likely in real play we can use halfway between these two points as an approximation of the real takepoint. In this case about 24%
I have been using “Stick’s cheatsheet” as a reference. My understanding is he is using 22.5% as the 4a 4a takepoint.
Meanwhile, I believe Phil Simborg’s reference is using 22 as a “LIVE CUBE” takepoint
Will the real takepoint please stand up? Explanations appreciated.
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