I quickly played the obvious 7/3 OTB not even considering the best play of 6/3 2/1. The best play gives you a broken 5 prime so it could work if the opponent rolls a 1 or 2. He might be unable to get up and over your prime or, if he does, you might dance a while and preserve timing for your ace point game. Plays like this are correct if the extra wins are greater than half the extra net g losses and all of the extra net bg losses (actuallly a bit less than 'half and all' since you own the cube).
The RO shows the correct play gives you 4.5% extra wins vs. 7.5% extra g's and 1.5% extra bg's. 4.5 is less than half of 7.5 + all of 1.5 but cube vig is enough to make 6/3 2/1 the best play.
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| XGID=a-BA-BCCB-a-------bcbbbbB-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 | ||||
 to play 11 | ||||
is Player 2| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3 2/1 | eq: -0.883 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 | eq: -0.909 (-0.026) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7 6/3 | eq: -0.941 (-0.059) | |||
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| 4. | XG Roller++ | 7/5 3/1 | eq: -0.945 (-0.063) | |||
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| 5. | XG Roller++ | 5/3(2) | eq: -0.959 (-0.077) | |||
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| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00