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What's your play? Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 13 October 2014, at 1:33 p.m.

In Response To: What's your play? (Stick)

The only reason that I posted this is that a student of mine brought it up and sent the XG rollout along with it. I went to check my own rollouts and all I had was this 1k GNU rollout which disagreed with XG on the correct play. XG had running ahead of splitting by .004 after 10k.

I purposely posted the rollout in the thread to see if people were paying attention and if it would sway their vote. It didn't get many replies of course since it's a 3rd roll position. I extended the GNU rollout and there was a pretty big swing in the difference in plays.

This was just a reminder to pay attention to variance. Not only to decide what the best play is but by how much.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0

Move number 3: Readers to play 46

Stick	163
Readers	159
Position ID: sGfwATCMZ/ABMA Match ID: cAkTAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/18 13/9	-0.139
			0.469 0.147 0.009 - 0.531 0.177 0.008 -0.091 -0.139 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063955330 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	24/14	-0.144 ( -0.005)
			0.470 0.126 0.006 - 0.530 0.160 0.006 -0.094 -0.144 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063955330 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• What's your play?
  Stick -- Monday, 6 October 2014, at 12:17 p.m.
  • What's your play?
    Keene -- Monday, 6 October 2014, at 7:07 p.m.
  • What's your play?
    David Rennie -- Tuesday, 7 October 2014, at 11:41 p.m.
  • What's your play?
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 8 October 2014, at 8:59 p.m.
  • What's your play? Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 1:33 p.m.
    • What's your play? Rollout
      Keene -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 3:58 p.m.