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looking for score adjustments for Keith count

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 16 October 2014, at 3:45 p.m.

In Response To: looking for score adjustments for Keith count (__1ERROR1__)

I'm not that conversant with the Keith count since I use the Trice count.

I tried it here and due to the small number of checkers left it's not very accurate. In particular, the extra checker matters a lot more that the Trice formula accounts for since the game is almost over. It looks more like a 3-roll vs 2.5 roll position to me which is a clear ND AtS.

Here's a better example:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
9 point match
pip: 54
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCCCB------------dcbbbb-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.496 +0.925
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.672
Redouble/Take:+0.402 (-0.270)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.328)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

To get the Trice number take the on-roll players pipcount, (make some adjustments which don't apply to this position), then subtract 5 and divide by 7 rounding down. (54-5)/7 rounded down is 7. That number is the point of last take for money: brown should drop if she's further behind than that and take if she isn't. White should double if he's within 3 of the point of last take and redouble if within 2.

Here, he's within 2, so it's a (money) double. If white were down by seven pips, she'd be around 22%. Add 2% per pip and you get 26% which is close to the 25.18% XGR++ reports.

Basically, there's a three pip wide window that starts at 16% and ends at 19%. The count will tell you how many pips away from 22% you are.

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