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From recent match Peoria RO

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Friday, 17 October 2014, at 12:34 p.m.

In Response To: From recent match Peoria RO (David Presser)

I noticed the computer likes two down with 64 also.

I don't know either but here is a guess. Your main path to winning is rolling doubles. Two down leaves a relatively small number of shots (11 on 65 or 13 on 64) after which you most likely survive.

Assuming you do survive, you gain time to wait for rolling doubles. Rolling doubles appears to be your game plan here. So, again, you "pay now" not to win the game but to buy time to hope for doubles later.

At first I thought the cube was a factor since you will not be cubes after leaving the shot following 13/8, 13/7. However, this is the best play regardless of cube position. Nevertheless this (false) factor would make me more likely to find this play. Knowing I can leave a game losing shot and not be doubled gives me more confidence to play it.

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