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Homerun or Smallball

Posted By: Seth
Date: Friday, 17 October 2014, at 10:04 p.m.

I'm playing my friend a 15 point match for 25.00. We have a proviso that a shutout( 15- 0 )is worth double(50.00 ). So far, neither of us has gotten the shutout. In today's play, my friend leads 12-0 and owns a 2 cube.He was getting gammoned, but hit a blot after I put 2 on the roof vs his 5 point board. He recubed me to 4 after escaping 1 checker from my home board and closing out his board. This is the position in the match, when he recubed me to 4.
Do you swing for the fences, or try to hit a single?
Swinging for the fences would be taking his 4 cube and reshipping it to 8 on your turn. You'd be hoping for a blot and hit later on with a nice 4 point board. If you won this game, the score would be 12-8.
Hitting a single,would be dropping the cube and going to 14-0 with hopes of winning Crawford game and averting the shutout.Obviously, you'd be a huge underdog to win match.
What strategy would you do over the board, and why ?
After some responses, will discuss my strategy and results.
In setup,I have white checkers and my friend has the blue checkers(disregard name sethmatch).

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, sethmatch 12 (match to 15 points)

Move number 4: sethmatch on roll, cube decision?

gnubg125

 '1O2X2X2X2X1O2X ' ' '4X

2O2O3O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' ' '
sethmatch86
Position ID: bJvhAUDbbQNAEA Match ID: UQngAQAAYAAA

sethmatch doubles

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