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looking for score adjustments for Keith count

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Sunday, 19 October 2014, at 9:19 p.m.

In Response To: looking for score adjustments for Keith count (ah_clem)

FWIW (the following is from trying to remember what I learned from studying this a couple of years back, without bothering to make proper notes of my findings):

I think 2 percentage points per pip is correct providing that

  • You are around the take point
  • You are in a medium length race (80-100 pipa)

In a short race (<60%), the worth of a pip might be closer to 3 percentage points, i suspect that in longer raves (> 120%) it might drop to 1,5-ish though I do not remember actually checking this.

And if in a medium length race - and in a rather uneven score which makes you want to calculate takepoints eg in the ~10% range - only the first pips will be worth 2 PP, after a while the worth of an additional pip will drop to 1,5 PP or even 1 PP. I would guess that in order to have 10% chance in a race you would not need to be within 6 pips of the Keith TP, but 8 pips (1,5 PP per pip) would be sufficient.

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