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Clothe it in your own words:)

Posted By: svilo
Date: Monday, 27 October 2014, at 6:50 a.m.

In Response To: Clothe it in your own words:) (svilo)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
7 point match
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout18/5eq: +0.779
79.52% (G:24.60% B:1.78%)
20.48% (G:1.24% B:0.11%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.773...+0.785) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 5/4eq: +0.751 (-0.028)
78.84% (G:23.38% B:1.68%)
21.16% (G:1.32% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.744...+0.757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout15/3* 3/2eq: +0.736 (-0.043)
75.29% (G:29.25% B:2.84%)
24.71% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.729...+0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout16/3* eq: +0.713 (-0.066)
74.28% (G:30.72% B:3.41%)
25.72% (G:3.18% B:0.15%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.706...+0.720) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds
5.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: +0.712 (-0.067)
76.28% (G:26.19% B:2.14%)
23.72% (G:2.60% B:0.18%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.705...+0.718) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

This insufficiently timed 1-3 backgame will often turn into a well timed acepoint game, As long as he is not on the bar he will evacuate the man on the Bulgarian point (not make it because he will no longer have the ace anchor (= acepoint game plus phantom 1-3 backgame). Being on the bar would help a 1-3 backgame structure, but he will probably end up with an acepoint game where his problem is saving the gammon, filling his own Bulgarian point and waiting for a last ditch shot. He needs to move. Difficult to assess the gammon value of piss and pass. One thing to dissuade me from that is the high price of additional gammons at this score. If I assessed these right OTB, I would play the right 2 8/6 (I learned from Ion Resu -former world champion who thought half hour before playing a deuce not to jump over the field of battle without a good reason), the remaining part is easy to overlook. 6/5 or 5/4. Since we need an ace to clear the 9 we play 6/5 and leave us 2s to POH. BTW at GG both the hit and stay and the piss and pass are right. An interesting, but insufficient idea is the priming 9/7 8/7. It still gives more gammons, but they are offset (a little) by the more games lost even at GG.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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