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Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 2 November 2014, at 7:03 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor (scotty)

scotty wrote:

If we get hit, our chances of winning are much better with 6 checkers remaining than with 7 checkers remaining to bear off.

That's not the correct comparison. Either way, we will almost certainly have at most 5 checkers remaining when we get hit, and if we play 4/2 3/off now, then we'll probably have at most 2 checkers remaining when we get hit, whereas after 4/off 2/off we'll probably still have 4 checkers remaining when we get hit.

Anyway, this is a really cool position, and if Bob Wachtel's book is any indication, one might need XG3 beta (set at XGR+) to get a rollout that one can somewhat trust. Like scotty, I would pay now, but that's really just a WAG. Maybe when I actually get around to studying Bob's book carefully I'll be able to reason it out.

By the way, one practical argument for paying now is that it gives the opponent more difficult stay-or-run decisions. If we pay later then most people will know that they should just stick around to the bitter end.

Messages In This Thread

• Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor
  Stick -- Sunday, 2 November 2014, at 3:38 p.m.
  • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor
    scotty -- Sunday, 2 November 2014, at 4:33 p.m.
    • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 2 November 2014, at 7:03 p.m.
      • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor
        scotty -- Monday, 3 November 2014, at 11:20 a.m.
  • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor
    AdamStocks -- Monday, 3 November 2014, at 2:46 a.m.
  • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor
    neilkaz -- Monday, 3 November 2014, at 4:52 p.m.
  • Bob Wachtel's book...
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 November 2014, at 5:57 p.m.
  • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor - Pos. #2
    Stick -- Monday, 3 November 2014, at 6:13 p.m.
    • Bearoff v. 24pt Anchor - Pos. #2
      grant Hoffman -- Tuesday, 4 November 2014, at 6:02 p.m.