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OLM 20141102A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 3 November 2014, at 8:42 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141102A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

My only reference positions for high-anchor holding games are the ones from Advanced Backgammon by Bill Robertie. In those positions, the 18pt is open, which is not the case here. In addition, the positions in Advanced Backgammon do not have a third checker back. Both of those differences favor the doubler in a big way. At 8-away, 7-away, there may be a small score influence making the take a bit easier.

The surprising conclusion in Advanced Backgammon is that you can take in a 5pt holding game with almost any race deficit. The close races combine race equity with shot equity, while the lopsided ones give the trailer an opportunity to keep his midpoint longer, thereby increasing shot equity enough to compensate for the reduced race equity.

This position could very well be a take. Frankly, I am not sure one way or the other. That being the case, I will follow my intuition which tells me that all too often the Dillies will be able to bring this home without ever leaving a shot. Many other times, they will leave just one.

Pass

Mike

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