I think Neil hit the nail on the head that the upcoming cube action is key. (I may do rollouts to confirm.) At any rate, a full explanation should account for why 8/5* 6/5 comes out ahead for money but 6/5* 4/1 comes out ahead ATS.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 86 | | 7 point match | pip: 99
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-BCaC-B-B--B-a-a-bbdbb--:1:1:1:11:2:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 4/1 | eq: +0.162 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.04% (G:3.16% B:0.07%)
45.96% (G:15.01% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.158...+0.166) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 6/5 | eq: +0.137 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.58% (G:3.57% B:0.10%)
44.42% (G:15.98% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.131...+0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 86 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 99
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-BCaC-B-B--B-a-a-bbdbb--:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 6/5 | eq: +0.244 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.69% (G:3.42% B:0.09%)
44.31% (G:15.64% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.236...+0.252) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 4/1 | eq: +0.204 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.99% (G:3.11% B:0.09%)
46.01% (G:14.58% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.200...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10