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Related Paradoxes

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 4:28 p.m.

In Response To: Who gets this right over the board (Phil Simborg)

On the left, Blue is over 60% and should not double. On the right, he is under 54% but Blue should double. Scroll down to see another contrasting pair.

White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 6 9 point match pip: 8 score: 7 Blue is Player 1 XGID=---A-A---------------a-a--:0:0:1:00:7:4:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 60.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.210 +1.001 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.215 ±0.000 (+0.215..+0.215) Double/Take: 0.000 (-0.215) ±0.000 (0.000..0.000) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.785) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.7% Rollout details 165888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 8.7 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 6 9 point match pip: 8 score: 7 Blue is Player 1 XGID=---A-A-------------a------:0:0:1:00:7:4:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 53.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 53.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 46.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.077 +0.693 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.018 (-0.018) ±0.000 (-0.018..-0.018) Double/Take: 0.000 ±0.000 (0.000..0.000) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.000) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 165888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 12.9 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

On the left, Blue leads 2a5a, Blue should double and White should pass. On the right, Blue trails 5a2a, Blue should not double and White has an easy take.

White is Player 1 score: 4 pip: 3 9 point match pip: 6 score: 7 Blue is Player 2 XGID=--A-A-----------------a---:0:0:1:00:7:4:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 63.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.278 +1.157 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.278 (-0.722) ±0.000 (+0.278..+0.278) Double/Take: +1.157 (+0.157) ±0.000 (+1.157..+1.157) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 0.5 second eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 1 score: 7 pip: 3 9 point match pip: 6 score: 4 Blue is Player 2 XGID=--A-A-----------------a---:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 63.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.278 +0.129 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.278 ±0.000 (+0.278..+0.278) Double/Take: +0.129 (-0.149) ±0.000 (+0.129..+0.129) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.722) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 0.3 second eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Who gets this right over the board
  Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 5:56 a.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 6:16 a.m.
    • Who gets this right over the board
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 6:23 a.m.
      • Who gets this right over the board
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 6:28 a.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 6:18 a.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    HOMINID -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 12:06 p.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 2:08 p.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Igor -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 2:36 p.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Stick -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 3:13 p.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    David Rennie -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 3:28 p.m.
  • Related Paradoxes
    Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 4:28 p.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 8:21 p.m.
    • Who gets this right over the board
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 8:41 p.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 8:46 p.m.
    • Who gets this right over the board
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 9:48 p.m.
      • Who gets this right over the board
        Joe Russell -- Thursday, 6 November 2014, at 12:57 a.m.
  • XG++ Eval & OTB thinking
    David Presser -- Thursday, 6 November 2014, at 6:50 a.m.
  • Who gets this right over the board
    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 6 November 2014, at 9:16 a.m.