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OLM 20141102A -- some Q&D rollouts

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 6 November 2014, at 5:56 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141102A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

I'm not sophisticated with .html so I'm uploading rollouts in multiple posts. Here is the actual position. Hopefully you'll look at the others, but discussion is best put here.

I missed the boat bigtime here. Although a majority got it right and some (thankfully) gave explanations of their choices, looking back over the posts I'm giving credit to Igor for mentioning the key issue in this position.

I made issues with our spare back checker (being a liability) and Opp's 11-point as a plus for us (because of future clearing difficulty for them). As you can see from the rollouts, neither has much effect.

The overriding factor is Opp's ownership of the 7-point which turns out to be a huge quantitative difference. Huge take if he doesn't have it. Huge pass if he does.

Worst of all, Woolsey covers the value of this asset in Cube Reference Positions quite accurately (at least in terms of difference between owning it and not). Guess I need to study that (along with the zillions of other literature -- electronic and paper -- available).

(BTW, I think the "too good" part likely has more to do with cube handling errors in the future than with actuality.)





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 125
11 point match
pip: 158
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BCABAA-cBb--cbcBbA---:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.009% (G:9.344% B:0.109%) 78.921% (G:10.240% B:0.145%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.991% (G:2.078% B:0.054%) 21.079% (G:2.257% B:0.061%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6373 +1.3577
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.0080±0.0053 (+1.0027..+1.0133)
Double/Take:+1.2128 (+0.2048)±0.0159 (+1.1969..+1.2287)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (-0.0080)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62344806
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:99.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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