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Rollout + follow-up question

Posted By: Tenland
Date: Friday, 7 November 2014, at 3:57 p.m.

In Response To: Trivial 62 to play ;) (Tenland)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aa--BCBC---cC---bce-A--A-:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout124/16eq: -0,554
Player:
Opponent:		37,40% (G:8,19% B:0,35%)
62,60% (G:20,48% B:0,70%)		Conf.: ± 0,016 (-0,570...-0,538) - [94,7%]
Duration: 11 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout123/15eq: -0,571 (-0,017)
Player:
Opponent:		36,59% (G:9,04% B:0,32%)
63,41% (G:19,28% B:0,77%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,585...-0,557) - [5,3%]
Duration: 11 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Publishing this already since I didn't want to discuss the other options, and between 24/16 and 23/15, you could guess what was played otb, and what is the best play.

Two reasons I came up with are that 1. after 24/16, only 66 hits from the 21 point (otherwise 65 does, that's one more number and a lame roll otherwise) and 2. when we come out, we slot a (very advanced) "anchor" - if left alone 4 numbers make it after 24/16, but only 2 after 23/15.

Can you rationalize other reasons why this is the dead obvious play? ;)

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