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4 Cube

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Tuesday, 18 November 2014, at 9:44 p.m.

In Response To: 4 Cube (Ian Dunstan)

I`ll start with the score - 10a-9a: by sending the 8 cube you lose most of your gammon leverage and you don't want to do that. The unadjusted TP is ~20.5% (and not much to adjust on 8/16 cubes) and White certainly has more than that, possibly even in the 30s win %. Therefore, this is the kind of games where you want to jump from ND to being TG so you can take advantage of all the gammons. Currently it is ND.

The money cube action looks like the difficult question for me - doubling looks clear for having advantages in all aspects, having two White checkers in your board and aiming at two more. The take is what I don't know because White has good developing structure that gives him plenty of win %. The question is whether the trade-off with all the gammons that White risks justifies it? I don't know. By not knowing I don't mean that it is close, but that I don't know to do the trade-off and won't be surprised by either result (even if by a large difference in equity).

ND/T ATS

D/?? (coin flip?) for money

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