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31P-54D-43D-54P-32P-44P-436-61P-65D-65 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 22 November 2014, at 11:13 a.m.

In Response To: Lopsided Prime-vs.-Prime Decision (Taper_Mike)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout18/3 8/2eq: -0.3305
41.66% (G:13.54% B:0.87%)
58.34% (G:19.76% B:1.62%)
Conf.: ±0.0074 (-0.3380...-0.3231) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 7/2eq: -0.6846 (-0.3540)
32.20% (G:9.91% B:0.59%)
67.80% (G:18.93% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ±0.0093 (-0.6939...-0.6752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 12 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57941701
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
eXtreme Gammon Version:
n[& P354] "<=5
n[& P305] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

31P-54D-43D-54P-32P-44P-436-61P-65D-65 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 1.04 2-ply Trunc 759364468 –318.756 n[& P302] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 57941701 –330.5 n[& P354] "<=5 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –331.0 n[& P305] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: & = Double slot [8/3, 8/2], P = Point [8/2, 7/2]

Nactation TutorialExplanation of nacbracsNacbracs for cube actions

Lopsided Prime-vs.-Prime Decision

When I saw the eval for this misplay, I felt sick like I just ate three of those damn whoppers!

I played this position in a vacuum, looking only at my side of the board. This was my (erroneous) thinking over the board:

  • Making the 2pt is safer than lifting the 8pt, 15 shots vs. 20.
  • Making the 2pt gives me a permanent asset.
  • It looks like I cannot hold onto the bar point in any event. Therefore, I need to roll my prime forward. I want the 2pt as part of that process.

I did not stop to see how my opponent’s rolls play. Here is what I should have been thinking about:

  • If I slot the 2pt and 3pt, my opponent’s hitting numbers are 1 and 2. Those are numbers that he can already play safely on his side, so I am not adding to my opponent’s list of playable numbers.
  • In contrast, making the 2pt gives my opponent a very nice 6 that hits. If I keep the bar point, his 6s do not play so well. The only 6s he would be really comfortable with are 64 and 65. Thus there are seven rolls that are markedly better for my opponent when I break the bar point.
  • 42 is duplicated when I keep the bar point. My opponent should forego the hit, and make his 4pt.
  • If I slot the 2pt and 3pt, and my opponent fails to hit, that means he will be stuck playing on his side of the board. When he is forced to leave a shot that I hit, many times I will be able cover one of my inside blots at the same time.
  • If I slot the 2pt and 3pt, then 6 of my opponent’s 20 hitting numbers force an immediate return shot: 51, 42, and 41.

I missed one other thing in my postmortem that Neil pointed out: lifting the 8pt buys out of 6s.


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