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5a 5a - 51 to play

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 24 November 2014, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: 5a 5a - 51 to play (ah_clem)

When in doubt make the five point, right?. But here making the five point is a whopper. I went for the five without thinking about it very much. It seemed obvious - X is behind in the race and needs to maintain contact while building the board. At DMP, this would be viable, but here leaving the runner on the two point leads to a lot of gammons and getting it out of there now is the right idea. White is not going to be forced to leave a shot (other than 61 which puts us on the roof) so the runner is more of a liability than an asset.

With O holding our seven point, there's still plenty of contact after playing 23/18. The fact that there are no good aces after 23/18 makes it just that much easier to go wrong here. 6/5 is slightly favored as the ace, but 5/4 and 4/3 are not far behind.





White is roman

score: 2
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 149
score: 2

Blue is herd
XGID=----BABbD--C----dcBd-b-A--:0:0:1:51:2:2:0:7:3
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: -0.372
Player:
Opponent:
36.11% (G:3.56% B:0.12%)
63.89% (G:4.67% B:0.10%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.381...-0.364) - [94.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 4/3eq: -0.383 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
36.28% (G:4.13% B:0.16%)
63.72% (G:5.57% B:0.17%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.393...-0.374) - [4.2%]
Duration: 5 minutes 59 seconds
3.Rollout123/18 5/4eq: -0.385 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
35.78% (G:3.68% B:0.13%)
64.22% (G:4.81% B:0.13%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.394...-0.376) - [1.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout111/5eq: -0.490 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
36.13% (G:5.63% B:0.24%)
63.87% (G:11.45% B:0.27%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.501...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
5.XG Roller++8/3 4/3eq: -0.478 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
36.31% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
63.69% (G:11.77% B:0.22%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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