When in doubt make the five point, right?. But here making the five point is a whopper. I went for the five without thinking about it very much. It seemed obvious - X is behind in the race and needs to maintain contact while building the board. At DMP, this would be viable, but here leaving the runner on the two point leads to a lot of gammons and getting it out of there now is the right idea. White is not going to be forced to leave a shot (other than 61 which puts us on the roof) so the runner is more of a liability than an asset.
With O holding our seven point, there's still plenty of contact after playing 23/18. The fact that there are no good aces after 23/18 makes it just that much easier to go wrong here. 6/5 is slightly favored as the ace, but 5/4 and 4/3 are not far behind.
          
 
         
 | | White is roman
score: 2
pip: 128 | | 7 point match | pip: 149
score: 2
Blue is herd |
|
| XGID=----BABbD--C----dcBd-b-A--:0:0:1:51:2:2:0:7:3 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 6/5 | eq: -0.372 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.11% (G:3.56% B:0.12%)
63.89% (G:4.67% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.381...-0.364) - [94.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 4/3 | eq: -0.383 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.28% (G:4.13% B:0.16%)
63.72% (G:5.57% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.393...-0.374) - [4.2%]
Duration: 5 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/18 5/4 | eq: -0.385 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.78% (G:3.68% B:0.13%)
64.22% (G:4.81% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.394...-0.376) - [1.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/5 | eq: -0.490 (-0.118) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.13% (G:5.63% B:0.24%)
63.87% (G:11.45% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.501...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 8/3 4/3 | eq: -0.478 (-0.106) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.31% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
63.69% (G:11.77% B:0.22%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2