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OLM 20141123A The Prime Factors -- DECISION

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 5:39 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141123A The Prime Factors -- DECISION (Taper_Mike)

I don't know how you were chosen as captain but I approve of the choice. Appears that you consider all arguments (even putting them in a table -- nice). I wish there were more commentaries/discussions in the typical decision than we currently have.

This seems to be a particularly interesting position in that there are several options (typical with doublets although way more common for small doublets) and concern over the long term timing and how we can form a GP which will work long term. There also seems to be a choice between maximizing our chances of keeping the one back checker from getting around vs. giving ourselves better chances if that checker reaches safety but allowing opp more chances to release it.

At least Casper (for one) attempted a quantitative argument on the timing issue. I thought about the backgame timing concepts from Mochy's work, but don't know if they apply directly because we don't have a backgame. We need to hit before the 3-point and 2-point are made (and before we get PoH'ed off the 24-point), which isn't the case for a backgame. I.e. the action we're looking for needs to come earlier than it typically does in a backgame while Mochy's timing arguments are based upon waiting until the bearoff begins (I assume).

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