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OLM 20141127A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 28 November 2014, at 5:05 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141127A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

There's an outside chance we can win a race here without hitting, but most of our equity comes from our hitting chances. Do we have enough of those? Dillies have three hurdles to cross: 1) get the back checker to safety, 2) get past our 16-point sentry, 3) not get hit in the homeboard by our lone back checker (as long as it stays there).

Gammons favor opp but we do get some of those as well. I don't have a quantitative way to evaluate all this (presently) so I have to go with experience, for what value that holds. It seems like we have enough fight here to take, but I'm not sure. (Makes their double a good one, at least against me.)

Take

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