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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 1 December 2014, at 6:11 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

XG recubed me here and I took. Looks like a clear recube. White has excellent diversification since 6s,5s,3s (plus D1) clear the 11-point while 4s,2s,1s PoH. Most of these are big market losers and it's not at all clear that Black has the 20% needed to take ATS (less than 20% if you take the opponent factor into accunt).

If you give Black 10% on White's clearing/pointing jokers Black needs 5.4 wins from White's other 18 numbers. 64 and 61 leave a direct and White has to weaken his position in some way on most other numbers so it looked takeable to me. The RO agrees.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 102
7 point match
pip: 78
score: 3

is Player 1
XGID=-CB-aCCbB--B-------bcbbab-:1:1:1:00:3:1:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.50% (G:8.85% B:0.10%) 77.83% (G:10.39% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.50% (G:2.11% B:0.04%) 22.17% (G:2.53% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.664 +1.294
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.810 (-0.049)0.006 (+0.804..+0.816)
Redouble/Take:+0.8590.010 (+0.849..+0.869)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.141)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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