Not only did I screw up the checker plays, but I also screwed up the rollouts, in at least five different ways (which I hope sets a record): (1) I should have used 4ply XG instead of 3ply for backgame rollouts. (2) I should have done some or all more than 1296. (3) In one or more of these positions, I may have overlooked the best play, not rolling it out. Kudos to anyone who looks for and finds one of these. Very possible. (4) As Stick pointed out, I should have done them for money instead of at a match score. (5) There may not be an exact one-to-one correspondence between the positions in my previous post and this one. In other words, I think I intended to originally post ten instead of nine.
Nonetheless, I feel that the info conveyed in the rollout results below is much more accurate than the XG ++ evals. Anyone who wants to do a better job of rolling out this set of positions is welcome to do so and post the results. It would be interesting to see by how much the 4ply rollout results differ from mine. I feel my time is better spent in moving on to studying other positions in other matches instead of spending more time improving these rollouts.
I think the XG evals had my cumulative checker play error at about 0.8, but I think the 3-ply rollouts had my cumulative checker play error at about 0.6. At any rate, my match PR went way down after rolling these out.
Thanks a lot to Stick for doing a terrific job discussing the concepts.
Position 1. After my blotless and "very safe" play (Bar/20*/18), I have to break my pretty structure next turn if I roll 33.
         
 
         
 | | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 194 | | 9 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-ab-cBCBB-B-b-----AdaaBa-A:1:-1:1:52:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20* 18/16 | eq: +0.794 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.07% (G:41.16% B:3.60%)
26.93% (G:3.85% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.774...+0.814) - [81.3%]
Duration: 13 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20* 22/20 | eq: +0.780 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.13% (G:39.95% B:2.97%)
26.87% (G:3.64% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.758...+0.802) - [16.6%]
Duration: 13 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20* 20/18 | eq: +0.768 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.74% (G:39.70% B:3.14%)
27.26% (G:3.98% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.749...+0.787) - [2.1%]
Duration: 13 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 2. I was complimenting myself for being so clever in constructing my 6prime. I admit I was admiring the beauty and power of my full prime. Perhaps I was even fondling it. ("Pride goes before a fall," from the Bible.) Ironically, I should have been contemplating breaking it to hit. I lost the game, but probably would have won it if I had not totally screwed up my checker plays.
  
   
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 247 | | 9 point match | pip: 151
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=baaccBBBBBB-----A--abAaaA-:1:-1:1:62:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/2* | eq: +1.015 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.30% (G:56.93% B:7.06%)
26.70% (G:2.88% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.037 (+0.979...+1.052) - [97.1%]
Duration: 14 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/1* | eq: +0.958 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.40% (G:55.91% B:7.26%)
28.60% (G:3.39% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.045 (+0.913...+1.002) - [2.5%]
Duration: 15 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/14 8/2* | eq: +0.948 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.96% (G:55.19% B:6.49%)
28.04% (G:3.25% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.035 (+0.913...+0.984) - [0.4%]
Duration: 14 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/18 16/14 | eq: +0.917 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.61% (G:53.06% B:4.07%)
27.39% (G:3.05% B:0.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.027 (+0.891...+0.944) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 3.
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 245 | | 9 point match | pip: 143
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=aabccBBBBBB---A---AabAaa--:1:-1:1:54:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.772 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.72% (G:49.12% B:4.71%)
31.28% (G:3.30% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.027 (+0.745...+0.799) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/17 10/5 | eq: +0.712 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.54% (G:46.75% B:4.22%)
32.46% (G:3.57% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (+0.688...+0.737) - [0.1%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/17 14/9 | eq: +0.704 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.61% (G:46.57% B:3.73%)
32.39% (G:3.56% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.681...+0.727) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 21/12 | eq: +0.698 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.42% (G:46.68% B:4.24%)
32.58% (G:3.74% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.024 (+0.673...+0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 14/5 | eq: +0.691 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.90% (G:46.68% B:3.94%)
33.10% (G:3.54% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (+0.666...+0.716) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 4. My play, 18/11, was way wrong in the XG++ eval, but came out behind by only .004 in this rollout.
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 243 | | 9 point match | pip: 134
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-acccBBBBBB-A-A---Aab-aa--:1:-1:1:52:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/16 10/5 | eq: +0.654 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.17% (G:45.78% B:4.20%)
33.83% (G:4.18% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.030 (+0.624...+0.684) - [35.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/11 | eq: +0.650 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.97% (G:45.38% B:4.06%)
34.03% (G:3.79% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.027 (+0.623...+0.678) - [23.4%]
Duration: 12 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/13 10/8 | eq: +0.648 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.77% (G:45.44% B:4.60%)
34.23% (G:4.06% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (+0.623...+0.672) - [16.1%]
Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 18/16 12/7 | eq: +0.645 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.77% (G:45.91% B:4.31%)
34.23% (G:3.90% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (+0.619...+0.670) - [11.4%]
Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 12/7 10/8 | eq: +0.642 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.72% (G:44.95% B:4.27%)
34.28% (G:3.46% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.024 (+0.618...+0.665) - [6.6%]
Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 14/12 10/5 | eq: +0.639 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.40% (G:45.03% B:4.49%)
34.60% (G:3.58% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.026 (+0.613...+0.666) - [6.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 14/9 10/8 | eq: +0.628 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.37% (G:44.18% B:4.29%)
34.63% (G:3.67% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.606...+0.651) - [0.5%]
Duration: 10 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 18/13 14/12 | eq: +0.627 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.40% (G:44.56% B:4.14%)
34.60% (G:3.78% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.026 (+0.601...+0.654) - [1.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout1 | 12/5 | eq: +0.611 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.95% (G:44.48% B:4.04%)
35.05% (G:3.94% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (+0.586...+0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 5.
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 238 | | 9 point match | pip: 127
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-acccBBBBBBAA-A-----a-ca--:1:-1:1:21:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/11 10/8 | eq: +0.649 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.28% (G:44.09% B:3.97%)
33.72% (G:3.43% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.627...+0.671) - [57.6%]
Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/6 | eq: +0.645 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.06% (G:44.46% B:4.23%)
33.94% (G:3.64% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.026 (+0.619...+0.670) - [37.9%]
Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/7 | eq: +0.627 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.74% (G:43.94% B:4.05%)
34.26% (G:3.62% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.604...+0.650) - [3.5%]
Duration: 12 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 14/12 10/9 | eq: +0.621 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.67% (G:43.00% B:3.88%)
34.33% (G:3.80% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.600...+0.642) - [1.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 11/9 10/9 | eq: +0.602 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.16% (G:42.89% B:3.57%)
34.84% (G:3.83% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.579...+0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 11/8 | eq: +0.600 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.84% (G:43.72% B:4.01%)
35.16% (G:3.79% B:0.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.577...+0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 6.
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 234 | | 9 point match | pip: 124
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-acccBBBCBB-A-A-------bc--:1:-1:1:54:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/1* | eq: +0.694 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.89% (G:44.81% B:3.76%)
32.11% (G:3.50% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.673...+0.715) - [99.9%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/9 5/1* | eq: +0.650 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.81% (G:42.85% B:2.43%)
32.19% (G:4.20% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.630...+0.670) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/7 10/6 | eq: +0.629 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.18% (G:43.82% B:3.49%)
33.82% (G:3.85% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.609...+0.648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 14/9 10/6 | eq: +0.625 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.17% (G:43.48% B:3.14%)
33.83% (G:3.84% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.607...+0.644) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 12/8 10/5 | eq: +0.609 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.70% (G:42.44% B:3.65%)
34.30% (G:3.93% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.589...+0.629) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 14/5 | eq: +0.576 (-0.118) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.10% (G:43.58% B:3.75%)
35.90% (G:4.14% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.556...+0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 7.
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 234 | | 9 point match | pip: 115
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-acccCBBCBB-A---------bc--:1:-1:1:53:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/1* | eq: +0.562 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.08% (G:42.35% B:3.59%)
35.92% (G:3.94% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.541...+0.583) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/9 10/5 | eq: +0.474 (-0.088) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.30% (G:41.10% B:3.80%)
38.70% (G:4.23% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.455...+0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/7 10/7 | eq: +0.447 (-0.115) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.50% (G:41.01% B:3.83%)
39.50% (G:4.32% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.426...+0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 33 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 8. Looks weird to have five on the 5pt while stripped on the 6pt, but when you consider how blue's rolls play next turn, he keeps his 5prime except when he rolls some doubles. Blue is hoping White will roll a 6 or a 2.
 
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 229 | | 9 point match | pip: 107
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=--bceCBDCBA-----------bc--:1:-1:1:32:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 7/5 | eq: +0.529 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.57% (G:42.83% B:3.63%)
37.43% (G:3.93% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.506...+0.551) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/5 | eq: +0.428 (-0.100) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.70% (G:41.72% B:3.81%)
40.30% (G:4.85% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.406...+0.450) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/6 8/5 | eq: +0.426 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.09% (G:39.59% B:3.81%)
39.91% (G:4.45% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.407...+0.445) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 9/6 7/5 | eq: +0.402 (-0.126) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.34% (G:39.79% B:4.10%)
40.66% (G:4.35% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.382...+0.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 10/7 8/6 | eq: +0.400 (-0.128) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.89% (G:41.26% B:3.52%)
41.11% (G:4.93% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.377...+0.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 9. This one should be done 4ply and maybe 5184. My play was way far wrong according to the XG++ eval, but actually won this rollout. Hope someone will do a 4ply rollout on this one.
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 228 | | 9 point match | pip: 102
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=--bceCCEBB------------bba-:1:-1:1:22:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/6(2) 7/5(2) | eq: +0.463 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.08% (G:42.66% B:5.52%)
40.92% (G:2.76% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.441...+0.486) - [69.7%]
Duration: 10 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/5(4) | eq: +0.454 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.32% (G:41.98% B:4.15%)
39.68% (G:4.28% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.431...+0.477) - [28.1%]
Duration: 11 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/6 7/5(3) | eq: +0.436 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.86% (G:41.18% B:5.48%)
41.14% (G:3.71% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.414...+0.458) - [2.2%]
Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 9/5 7/5(2) | eq: +0.396 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.12% (G:40.80% B:4.25%)
41.88% (G:4.21% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.026 (+0.370...+0.421) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 10. Who would have known that volunteering a triple shot would be better than my running play?
 
| | White is shimohei
score: 3
pip: 214 | | 9 point match | pip: 105
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=--bccFFB--a-a---------bbaA:1:-1:1:64:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/19 5/1 | eq: +0.277 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.48% (G:37.93% B:5.02%)
45.52% (G:3.14% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.256...+0.299) - [82.9%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 7/1 | eq: +0.263 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.41% (G:36.46% B:4.90%)
45.59% (G:3.82% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.242...+0.283) - [16.4%]
Duration: 10 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 | eq: +0.243 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.83% (G:36.48% B:5.27%)
46.17% (G:3.76% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.223...+0.264) - [0.6%]
Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2