I botched this one. I quickly hit OTB thinking that this would win enough extra g's to make it better than closing the board. It actually wins fewer g's along with losing a little more often as well. As Neil and others pointed out, your g chances are reasonable even if you fail to hit either Black blot (Black does have 20 outside pips to the 6-point).
1. | Rollout1 | 9/3 4/3 | eq: +1.659 |
| Player: Opponent: | 99.14% (G:65.02% B:2.79%) 0.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.656...+1.661) - [100.0%] Duration: 20.3 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 19/13 8/7* | eq: +1.566 (-0.093) |
| Player: Opponent: | 97.45% (G:59.52% B:3.07%) 2.55% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.563...+1.569) - [0.0%] Duration: 30.9 seconds |
|
3. | 4-ply | 9/3 8/7* | eq: +1.525 (-0.133) |
| Player: Opponent: | 95.66% (G:60.02% B:3.08%) 4.34% (G:0.34% B:0.00%) | |
|
4. | 3-ply | 8/7* 7/1 | eq: +1.492 (-0.167) |
| Player: Opponent: | 96.58% (G:55.41% B:1.84%) 3.42% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) | |
|
5. | 3-ply | 19/13 9/8 | eq: +1.304 (-0.355) |
| Player: Opponent: | 92.46% (G:46.73% B:1.70%) 7.54% (G:0.28% B:0.00%) | |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|