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I couldn't believe it!! (OTB and RO)

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 6 December 2014, at 8:49 p.m.

In Response To: Nice recube for match? (neilkaz)

I was shocked to see Blue contemplating a recube here. White has a 20% TP for match and Blue's recube kills his G chances. It is quite common for Blue to have to split those back checkers from here, esp. at DMP when White can play anything he wants to with no G or BG fear.

I was much more shocked when Blue actually recubed for match!! Clearly White can win this lots more than 20%!

A sextuple whopper!! (Perhaps worse if I'd taken the time to RO on a higher level like XGR+).





White is Player 2

score: 19
pip: 96
25 point match
pip: 29
score: 21

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB--------------c-cbbd--A:1:1:1:00:21:19:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.287% (G:21.923% B:7.760%) 67.285% (G:28.605% B:9.670%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.714% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 32.715% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6595 +0.8786
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7928±0.0121 (+0.7807..+0.8049)
Redouble/Take:+0.1546 (-0.6382)±0.0283 (+0.1263..+0.1829)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2072)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 43.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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