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Rollout and comments

Posted By: Tenland
Date: Saturday, 6 December 2014, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: 32 from the bar with some options (Tenland)

I made the bar/22 15/13 play, a strong sixth best move, with bar/23 7/4 in seventh place ;)

My naive OTB analysis was probably that I had to clean up the blot since I didn't want another guy sent back behind his decent prime, and wanted to be able to focus on escaping my last man. What I did't realize is that, as Timothy indicated in his comment about "game of chicken", this blot is actually an asset, not a liability. Even if we knew he would roll an ace, bar/22 13/11 would not be a big mistake! Granted, 11 51 get a lot better, but 31 41 don't cover the blot (still a little better with the hit though), and after 21 61 he is worse off (either we are in a better position after he makes the prime or he has to settle for a hit because our blot threatens him).

When it comes to hits from his anchor, 52 leaves lots of returns, 62 or 61 (depending on which blotty play we make) are better played making the prime, and with his 66, getting hit is advantageous.

When he just rolls "something else" and cleans up his blot, we have more flexibility and are better off when we have the less stodgy positon.

Between bar/20 and playing something down from the midpoint the difference is pretty small. Bar/20 is best when he airballs.

Comparing bar/23 13/10 and bar/22 13/11 is difficult for me, I mean I could get into swings on 33 or something but...

Even if we weaken our offense to basically nothing and move his 1 pt blot to his sixpoint, its not enough to even make the stodgy play get really close.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 135 Unlimited Game pip: 141 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bB-DBB----CaAbbcd----aA:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 13/11	eq: +0,186
	Player: Opponent: 55,95% (G:11,93% B:0,54%) 44,05% (G:14,90% B:0,46%) Conf.: ± 0,018 (+0,168...+0,204) - [65,5%] Duration: 10 minutes 21 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 13/10	eq: +0,182 (-0,004)
	Player: Opponent: 55,68% (G:12,34% B:0,51%) 44,32% (G:13,58% B:0,43%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,169...+0,194) - [34,5%] Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20	eq: +0,153 (-0,034)
	Player: Opponent: 55,99% (G:10,96% B:0,52%) 44,01% (G:16,03% B:0,37%) Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,140...+0,165) - [0,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/23 15/12	eq: +0,112 (-0,074)
	Player: Opponent: 54,05% (G:10,66% B:0,47%) 45,95% (G:12,94% B:0,31%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,099...+0,125) - [0,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 23 seconds
5.	Rollout1	Bar/22 6/4	eq: +0,083 (-0,103)
	Player: Opponent: 53,59% (G:11,08% B:0,48%) 46,41% (G:15,14% B:0,35%) Conf.: ± 0,016 (+0,067...+0,099) - [0,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 40 seconds
6.	Rollout1	Bar/22 15/13	eq: +0,080 (-0,106)
	Player: Opponent: 53,26% (G:10,08% B:0,44%) 46,74% (G:13,92% B:0,24%) Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,068...+0,092) - [0,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 32 from the bar with some options
  Tenland -- Saturday, 29 November 2014, at 12:49 p.m.
  • 32 from the bar with some options
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 29 November 2014, at 2:27 p.m.
  • Rollout and comments
    Tenland -- Saturday, 6 December 2014, at 10:56 p.m.