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Matchplay cube **ROLLOUT**

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Sunday, 7 December 2014, at 9:01 a.m.

In Response To: Matchplay cube (Michael Depreli)

XGR++ dinged me hard for dropping this cube and even after ~100 trials it was 100% confident it was a take. A longer rollout showed otherwise.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
7 point match
pip: 159
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BbCbBBAC-----a--bbbbbB---:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.67% (G:21.91% B:0.93%) 75.17% (G:22.93% B:1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.33% (G:8.41% B:0.40%) 24.83% (G:8.18% B:0.66%)
Cubeless Equities +0.623 +1.285
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.814 (-0.186)±0.010 (+0.805..+0.824)
Double/Take:+1.030 (+0.030)±0.017 (+1.013..+1.047)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1451 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 9 moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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