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Keith count fails this cube hard

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: Keith count fails this cube hard (tuvi)

Trying to estimate the EPC (effective pip count) would be my approach to this position:

Player(1) has accumulated a lot of wastage in his home (especially on the 1- and 2-point). For this reason, it is not enough to add only 10 pips as in a typically flat position. It is rather necessary to add a higher amount of pips (about 12-13) in order to consider the "extra checkers" on the 1- and 2-point adequately. So, I estimate the EPC of Player(1)'s home to be about: 37+13=50. (37 raw pips + 13 pips due to wastage). Then, I add the (raw but not converted) pips of the outerboard: 50+25=75.
Player(2) has a quite flat position in his/her home. Therefore, adding 10 pips seems to be reasonable in order to consider the wastage appropriately. I'd estimate the EPC of Player(2)'s home to be about 41+10=51. Adding the remaining pips of the checkers in the outerboard will lead to: 51+31=82.

According to Walter Trice's term 7N+1, Player(1) will have about ~10 rolls to finish this game. His rough-and-ready formula is: "Point of last take for the trailer is when he is down a number of effective pips equal to the number of rolls to minus three." So, 10-3 equals 7 which is the EPC difference of the two players. Provided that my estimation of EPC is correct, I think that Player(1) has a clear Double, and Player(2) might probably have a thin Take.

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