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Keith count fails this cube hard

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: Keith count fails this cube hard (tuvi)

Trying to estimate the EPC (effective pip count) would be my approach to this position:

Player₍₁₎ has accumulated a lot of wastage in his home (especially on the 1- and 2-point). For this reason, it is not enough to add only 10 pips as in a typically flat position. It is rather necessary to add a higher amount of pips (about 12-13) in order to consider the "extra checkers" on the 1- and 2-point adequately. So, I estimate the EPC of Player₍₁₎'s home to be about: 37+13=50. (37 raw pips + 13 pips due to wastage). Then, I add the (raw but not converted) pips of the outerboard: 50+25=75.
Player₍₂₎ has a quite flat position in his/her home. Therefore, adding 10 pips seems to be reasonable in order to consider the wastage appropriately. I'd estimate the EPC of Player₍₂₎'s home to be about 41+10=51. Adding the remaining pips of the checkers in the outerboard will lead to: 51+31=82.

According to Walter Trice's term 7N+1, Player₍₁₎ will have about ~10 rolls to finish this game. His rough-and-ready formula is: "Point of last take for the trailer is when he is down a number of effective pips equal to the number of rolls to minus three." So, 10-3 equals 7 which is the EPC difference of the two players. Provided that my estimation of EPC is correct, I think that Player₍₁₎ has a clear Double, and Player₍₂₎ might probably have a thin Take.

Messages In This Thread

• Keith count fails this cube hard
  tuvi -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 3:20 a.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    tuvi -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 3:33 a.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    roadkillbooks -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 5:49 a.m.
    • Keith count fails this cube hard
      Igor -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 2:25 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    trunky -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 10:13 a.m.
    • Keith count fails this cube hard
      Igor -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 2:33 p.m.
      • iSight count for this possition works
        Trunky -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 4:30 p.m.
        • iSight count for this possition works
          Igor -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 5:28 p.m.
          • iSight count for this possition doesn't work
            Trunky -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 10:42 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 1:05 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    Wolfgang -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 1:47 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    Stick -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 2:46 p.m.
    • Keith count fails this cube hard
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:26 a.m.
      • Keith count fails this cube hard
        Stick -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 8:20 p.m.
        • Keith count fails this cube hard
          Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 8:55 p.m.
          • Keith count fails this cube hard
            Stick -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 9:23 p.m.
    • Keith count fails this cube hard
      grant Hoffman -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 7:59 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    Keene -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 3:18 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 7:19 p.m.
    • Keith count fails this cube hard
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:23 a.m.
    • Keith count fails this cube hard
      Wolfgang -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 5:23 p.m.
      • Summary of the “Isight Method”
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 7:47 p.m.
        • Wow! (Summary of the “Isight Method”)
          Wolfgang -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 8:09 p.m.
        • Summary of the “Isight Method”
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 9:15 p.m.
          • Does the “Isight Method” Need an Adjustment in Long Races?
            Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 9:45 p.m.
        • Summary of the “Isight Method”
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 2:04 p.m.
          • Summary of the “Isight Method”
            Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 9:42 p.m.
            • Summary of the “Isight Method”
              Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 9:50 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    grant Hoffman -- Tuesday, 9 December 2014, at 10:24 p.m.
  • Keith count fails this cube hard
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 7:14 p.m.