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Pointless - fine tuning U RO, see the other -4-7 RO too

Posted By: svilo
Date: Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 6:37 a.m.

In Response To: Pointless - fine tuning (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--b-EDC--C---aa--bcab-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.36% (G:4.66% B:0.11%) 72.45% (G:4.79% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.64% (G:2.40% B:0.03%) 27.55% (G:2.34% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.471 +0.949
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.792±0.008 (+0.784..+0.800)
Double/Take:+0.788 (-0.004)±0.011 (+0.777..+0.800)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.208)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:69.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds

So small the double and so big the take! Look a the
-4-7 RO. So clear the double. At even away scores one of the incentives to double is that even away + even away = even away. And we love to be even away. And one of the incentives for him to pass can be to put as in an odd away score.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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