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Keith count fails this cube hard

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 7:14 p.m.

In Response To: Keith count fails this cube hard (tuvi)

I use my own methods for bearoffs and races. My methods are a combination of my own things and some adjustments from other methods.

It is important to see this race as a hybrid between a "normal" pip count oriented race and a turn based race. In a pure pip count race with the count 62 vs 70 this would be a borderline drop take. However, in a hybrid race, this 8 pip lead would result in a big pass. But here clearly, the leader Black has to be penalized some adjusted pips when compared to White.

So lets try to figure how much to penalize Black. A good rule of thumb in this position type is to add 2 for that extra on the 1 pt and add 1 for that extra on the 2 pt.

Our 4 pt gap is bad here, but might get filled naturally, but if we fill it with a 1 or a two we waste a crossover. That looks like a pip penalty to me, but lets compare to White's position. If we moved that spare on White's 3 pt (extras there are a penalty) back to fill the semi-gap on the 4 pt, we haven't really harmed White's position by a pip, if at all. So this basically cancels out our gap.

What about the outfield? White has an extra crossover and sometimes in a hybrid race that can lead to a lost turn. But our outfield distribution isn't pretty. I'll just penalize White 1/2 a pip for the outfield.

So in EPC terms I expect Black has a 5.5 pip lead making this a huge cube in this hybrid race. If I felt this was a 6.5 pip lead, I'd expect this position to be a close pass. Here it is a clear take.

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