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BGonline.org Forums
Contrasting Variants
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Contrasting Variants (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 10:11 p.m.
Sorry to say, I do not have a subscription to Gammon Village. (I keep saying I need to take advantage of the “lifetime” offer, and then I end up deferring the $100+ expense.)
In the contrasting positions I presented, the big swing may be related to how 4s play after a hit. Even though the only difference between the two positions is the one pip that results when the opponent’s spare slides forward from his 5pt to his 4pt, that is enough to turn 4s into cracking numbers after a hit.
Although this is an explanation that sounds plausible, I have not taken the time to devise any positions that test the theory.
Mike
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 71Unlimited Game pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bbccbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 53
1. Rollout1 8/5 8/3* eq: +0.2879
Player:
Opponent:67.96% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
32.04% (G:1.40% B:0.01%)Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.2865...+0.2894) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds2. Rollout1 7/4 7/2 eq: +0.2490 (-0.0389)
Player:
Opponent:67.47% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
32.53% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2469...+0.2511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.0 seconds1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84274889
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000932a.xgp
n[J j39] "<=5eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 72Unlimited Game pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bcbcbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 53
1. Rollout1 7/4 7/2 eq: +0.2846
Player:
Opponent:68.87% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
31.13% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2825...+0.2866) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds2. Rollout1 8/3* 6/3 eq: +0.2490 (-0.0356)
Player:
Opponent:66.48% (G:1.00% B:0.02%)
33.52% (G:7.00% B:0.14%)Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.2478...+0.2502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.4 seconds1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84274889
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000932b.xgp
n[j J36] "<=5eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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