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31P-22E-41E-54 -- Rollout and analysis

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 12 December 2014, at 5:06 a.m.

In Response To: 31P-22E-41E-54 (Igor)

There are three candidates to consider:

1. Running 22/13
2. Bringing two down 13/9 13/8
3. No-name 13/4

Let's first discard 13/4 as it puts a checker into a wrong spot and it's too early in the game to splay super safe.

Two down brings some ammunition to annoy white's split checkers while also duplicating her fours. But white would be happy to hit our blot with a four and gain an upper hand in the race.

Should we even consider running off the anchor? First, we are slightly ahead in the race after the roll and running escapes one back checker. Second, how costly could it be to leave the anchor? White has only 8 checkers in the zone, so this is a perfect time to run off that mediocre anchor.

I also like Mike's observation that white has an upper hand in the priming contest. All positional features indicate that our best game plan here is to race.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C---eE---b-cc-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:6
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout122/13eq: -0.113
Player:
Opponent:
48.55% (G:7.41% B:0.32%)
51.45% (G:13.26% B:0.35%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.119...-0.106) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout113/4eq: -0.138 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
46.19% (G:10.79% B:0.37%)
53.81% (G:11.57% B:0.43%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.145...-0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.139 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
46.02% (G:12.40% B:0.45%)
53.98% (G:12.15% B:0.52%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.147...-0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 35 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38711904
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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