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OLM 20141213A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 12:28 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141213A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

Teammate Original Move
Bob Koca 16/13, 8/6
Our gammon count is 55 before moving. Our opponent's pipcount is 52. If there is no hitting the gammon save will be very close.
I think that 5/2 10/8 is the DMP play but wasting 3 pips inside is not worth it ATS.
My choice is 8/6 16/13 but 8/6 10/7 and 16/11 also look fine.
Taper_Mike 16/13, 8/6
Casper Van der Tak 16/14, 10/7
Still keeping the option of making the 7 and 8, and not yet wasting pips inside.
Chuck Bower 16/14, 10/7
This looks like a classic case of not wasting gammon saving pips but still giving ourselves options to improve our block (in case we can hit soon). There are multiple ways to accomplish this but the one which seems to give us the best chances is to slot the bar now. Covering the 8-point is ok (and it is "bird-in-the-hand") but the 7-point is so much better.
ex-teammate Stick 16/14, 10/7
I agree with everything Chuck said and that pains me. Plays like this cost very little in equity but they should be a next.
(While Stick’s opinion may influence some of his, his vote counts for nothing.)
garyo 10/8, 5/2
8point is valuable on its own, until we make the 2 - so make the 8 and slot the 2
Havard Raddum 10/8, 5/2
For me, this is a question of whether to step up with the 2, to increase shots if opponents must leave a blot. But I don't think we should. Any blot leaving roll for the Dillies will make them hit loose, most probably on the ace. Then we might dance or enter on the three, hurting our future hitting chances. Decided to keep the anchor as it is, a normal board-improving move is the thing to do.
lenny 10/8, 5/2. Hope for best.
Fatboy 16/11, I suppose...
Igor 16/11
There is a nontrivial chance we can run off the gammon (if we don't hit), so I don't want to waste any potential pips in the race and I think 16/11 is the most flexible move in that respect since it gets one crossover. Let's keep our options open.
kruidenbuiltje 16/11
We have 55 pips to go to save the gammon, 50 pips after this move.
And white having 52 pips to go. Both sides have some wastage, white somewhere between 7 and 10 pips.
Blue will waste some pips at the crossovers, I estimate somewhere around 5 pips.
Anyway the gammonrace is close.
16/11 is quite efficient as a crossover, and since the most probable hit will be with a 4 or 5, it adds diversification (2 and 3) to hit and make the 5-prime.
Steve Mellen 16/11 for me.
I am not sure yet whether I want to waste 3 pips inside by slotting the 2-point.
Seth 24/22, 16/13
Talk about thinking outside the box. Where is the box?-lol
Daniel Murphy

With the gammon a close thing, I think it would be a mistake to slot the 2pt. Doing so implies an intention to move 4 more pips inside later on in order to cover. Those are 7 pips that I feel must be played outside.

Of course, none of us wants to split right now (anymore), so that leaves three choices 16/11, 16/13 8/6 and 16/14 10/7. I could live with any one of them. 16/11 might be the best. I worry a little bit about the wastage that might result from putting a checker on the 7pt.

Mike

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