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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 5:55 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame Cube Action, Peever-Petko, Part 1 (Paul Weaver)

Each of the six positions has been rolled out for money (shown on the left) and also at a match score that was randomly chosen (right side). If, for some reason, we accept XG's claims below as gospel where is says "Best Cube action," then coincidentally, for each of these six positions, the cube action for money (on the left) differs from the match cube action (on the right).

Be on the lookout in a day or two for Peever-Petko Backgame Cube Action Part 2, Positions 7-12, from the same game.

My comments below apply only to the money game positions and not to those on the right taken from matches.

Position 1. Although Blue has an advanced anchor, he has no new offensive points. Leading by 36 pips with a pure position (no buried checkers), Blue is a significant favorite, but way short of a double.





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 207
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 171
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aabab-E-C--AbB----AbABbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.72% (G:24.40% B:1.35%) 62.49% (G:24.05% B:1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.28% (G:8.76% B:0.34%) 37.51% (G:8.66% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities +0.421 +0.827
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6290.025 (+0.604..+0.654)
Double/Take:+0.548 (-0.081)0.027 (+0.521..+0.575)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.371)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Petko

score: 4
pip: 207
11 point match
pip: 171
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aabab-E-C--AbB----AbABbb--:0:0:1:00:0:4:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.66% (G:24.41% B:1.27%) 62.67% (G:24.33% B:1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.34% (G:9.11% B:0.51%) 37.33% (G:9.16% B:0.58%)
Cubeless Equities +0.409 +0.885
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.734 (-0.004)0.005 (+0.729..+0.739)
Double/Take:+0.7380.006 (+0.732..+0.744)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.262)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:86.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 hours 04 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2. By unstacking his 6pt to make his 3pt, Blue has improved over Position 1. Blue should not panic when he sees that White has three defensive anchors, because White trails by only 46 pips, which does not give him enough timing to hold all three.





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 209
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=abbBb-D-B--AbB----AbABbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.82% (G:28.49% B:2.30%) 63.68% (G:28.41% B:2.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.18% (G:7.62% B:0.33%) 36.32% (G:7.57% B:0.33%)
Cubeless Equities +0.505 +1.004
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7180.006 (+0.712..+0.724)
Double/Take:+0.713 (-0.004)0.007 (+0.706..+0.720)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.282)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:83.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 25 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 209
5 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=abbBb-D-B--AbB----AbABbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.88% (G:28.50% B:2.55%) 63.87% (G:28.54% B:2.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.12% (G:7.66% B:0.50%) 36.13% (G:7.80% B:0.62%)
Cubeless Equities +0.493 +1.093
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.773 (-0.019)0.011 (+0.761..+0.784)
Double/Take:+0.7910.014 (+0.778..+0.805)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.209)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 3. Making his 7pt has improved Blue's position. White's third back checker on the 23pt and another on the 24pt are problematic. Blue now has a double.





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 190
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-acBb-DBB---bA----abACbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.22% (G:29.57% B:2.11%) 65.16% (G:29.80% B:2.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.78% (G:7.26% B:0.31%) 34.84% (G:7.30% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.546 +1.094
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.787 (-0.023)0.011 (+0.776..+0.799)
Double/Take:+0.8110.013 (+0.798..+0.824)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.189)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 190
9 point match
pip: 156
score: 2

Blue is peever
XGID=-acBb-DBB---bA----abACbb--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.31% (G:29.92% B:2.28%) 65.15% (G:29.98% B:2.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.69% (G:7.35% B:0.31%) 34.85% (G:7.55% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.561 +1.108
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7330.015 (+0.718..+0.748)
Double/Take:+0.699 (-0.034)0.021 (+0.678..+0.719)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.267)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4. Blue has reestablished his midpoint, but White has made some progress advancing a back checker. Blue still has a double.





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 185
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--cBbaDBB---bB-----c-Cbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.87% (G:26.93% B:1.67%) 65.88% (G:27.09% B:1.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.13% (G:7.60% B:0.28%) 34.12% (G:7.62% B:0.30%)
Cubeless Equities +0.525 +1.053
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.731 (-0.057)0.017 (+0.714..+0.748)
Double/Take:+0.7880.022 (+0.766..+0.810)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.212)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 185
9 point match
pip: 149
score: 3

Blue is peever
XGID=--cBbaDBB---bB-----c-Cbb--:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.69% (G:27.55% B:1.83%) 65.51% (G:27.71% B:2.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.31% (G:7.57% B:0.30%) 34.49% (G:7.74% B:0.31%)
Cubeless Equities +0.570 +1.153
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6930.014 (+0.679..+0.707)
Double/Take:+0.634 (-0.059)0.021 (+0.613..+0.655)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.307)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.9%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 40 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 5. White has improved his stock a bit by making some progress with his back checkers, Blue no longer has a double.





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 172
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--bBb-CBBa-abC-----c-Cbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.00% (G:24.17% B:1.41%) 65.02% (G:24.29% B:1.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.00% (G:8.46% B:0.35%) 34.98% (G:8.55% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities +0.468 +0.937
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7020.010 (+0.692..+0.712)
Double/Take:+0.666 (-0.036)0.012 (+0.653..+0.678)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.298)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 172
6 point match
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--bBb-CBBa-abC-----c-Cbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:6:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.02% (G:24.47% B:1.39%) 65.08% (G:24.54% B:1.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.98% (G:8.51% B:0.45%) 34.92% (G:8.78% B:0.63%)
Cubeless Equities +0.494 +1.047
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.764 (-0.014)0.009 (+0.755..+0.773)
Double/Take:+0.7780.012 (+0.767..+0.790)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.222)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:97.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 6. Blue leads by only 21 pips and has seen his stock go down. Although at first glance it may appear that White owns only a two-prime, if Blue rolls 22, he is in for a bit of a unpleasant surprise.





White is Petko

score: 0
pip: 169
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--bBb-CBB--bbD-----baBbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.76% (G:22.72% B:1.22%) 63.70% (G:22.75% B:1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.24% (G:8.49% B:0.32%) 36.30% (G:8.50% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities +0.426 +0.849
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6250.019 (+0.605..+0.644)
Double/Take:+0.563 (-0.061)0.022 (+0.541..+0.586)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.375)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Petko

score: 5
pip: 169
9 point match
pip: 148
score: 5

Blue is peever
XGID=--bBb-CBB--bbD-----baBbb--:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.91% (G:22.98% B:3.25%) 63.81% (G:23.27% B:4.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.09% (G:8.47% B:0.57%) 36.19% (G:8.79% B:0.73%)
Cubeless Equities +0.530 +1.323
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.809 (-0.017)0.007 (+0.802..+0.816)
Double/Take:+0.8260.008 (+0.818..+0.835)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.174)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 hours 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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