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Rollout Results Posted
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 5:55 p.m.
In Response To: Backgame Cube Action, PeeverPetko, Part 1 (Paul Weaver)
Each of the six positions has been rolled out for money (shown on the left) and also at a match score that was randomly chosen (right side). If, for some reason, we accept XG's claims below as gospel where is says "Best Cube action," then coincidentally, for each of these six positions, the cube action for money (on the left) differs from the match cube action (on the right).
Be on the lookout in a day or two for PeeverPetko Backgame Cube Action Part 2, Positions 712, from the same game.
My comments below apply only to the money game positions and not to those on the right taken from matches.
Position 1. Although Blue has an advanced anchor, he has no new offensive points. Leading by 36 pips with a pure position (no buried checkers), Blue is a significant favorite, but way short of a double.
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 207Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 171
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=aababECAbBAbABbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 62.72% (G:24.40% B:1.35%) 62.49% (G:24.05% B:1.35%) Opponent Winning Chances: 37.28% (G:8.76% B:0.34%) 37.51% (G:8.66% B:0.39%) Cubeless Equities +0.421 +0.827 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.629 ±0.025 (+0.604..+0.654) Double/Take: +0.548 (0.081) ±0.027 (+0.521..+0.575) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.371) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.3% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Petko
score: 4
pip: 20711 point match pip: 171
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=aababECAbBAbABbb:0:0:1:00:0:4:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 62.66% (G:24.41% B:1.27%) 62.67% (G:24.33% B:1.25%) Opponent Winning Chances: 37.34% (G:9.11% B:0.51%) 37.33% (G:9.16% B:0.58%) Cubeless Equities +0.409 +0.885 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.734 (0.004) ±0.005 (+0.729..+0.739) Double/Take: +0.738 ±0.006 (+0.732..+0.744) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.262) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 86.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 hours 04 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 2. By unstacking his 6pt to make his 3pt, Blue has improved over Position 1. Blue should not panic when he sees that White has three defensive anchors, because White trails by only 46 pips, which does not give him enough timing to hold all three.
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 209Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 163
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=abbBbDBAbBAbABbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.82% (G:28.49% B:2.30%) 63.68% (G:28.41% B:2.32%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.18% (G:7.62% B:0.33%) 36.32% (G:7.57% B:0.33%) Cubeless Equities +0.505 +1.004 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.718 ±0.006 (+0.712..+0.724) Double/Take: +0.713 (0.004) ±0.007 (+0.706..+0.720) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.282) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.5% Rollout details 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 83.1% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 5 hours 25 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 2095 point match pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=abbBbDBAbBAbABbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.88% (G:28.50% B:2.55%) 63.87% (G:28.54% B:2.67%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.12% (G:7.66% B:0.50%) 36.13% (G:7.80% B:0.62%) Cubeless Equities +0.493 +1.093 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.773 (0.019) ±0.011 (+0.761..+0.784) Double/Take: +0.791 ±0.014 (+0.778..+0.805) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.209) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 98.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 3. Making his 7pt has improved Blue's position. White's third back checker on the 23pt and another on the 24pt are problematic. Blue now has a double.
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 190Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 156
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=acBbDBBbAabACbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.22% (G:29.57% B:2.11%) 65.16% (G:29.80% B:2.18%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.78% (G:7.26% B:0.31%) 34.84% (G:7.30% B:0.32%) Cubeless Equities +0.546 +1.094 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.787 (0.023) ±0.011 (+0.776..+0.799) Double/Take: +0.811 ±0.013 (+0.798..+0.824) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.189) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.6% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 1909 point match pip: 156
score: 2
Blue is peeverXGID=acBbDBBbAabACbb:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.31% (G:29.92% B:2.28%) 65.15% (G:29.98% B:2.65%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.69% (G:7.35% B:0.31%) 34.85% (G:7.55% B:0.38%) Cubeless Equities +0.561 +1.108 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.733 ±0.015 (+0.718..+0.748) Double/Take: +0.699 (0.034) ±0.021 (+0.678..+0.719) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.267) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.2% Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.6% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 4. Blue has reestablished his midpoint, but White has made some progress advancing a back checker. Blue still has a double.
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 185Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 149
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=cBbaDBBbBcCbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.87% (G:26.93% B:1.67%) 65.88% (G:27.09% B:1.73%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.13% (G:7.60% B:0.28%) 34.12% (G:7.62% B:0.30%) Cubeless Equities +0.525 +1.053 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.731 (0.057) ±0.017 (+0.714..+0.748) Double/Take: +0.788 ±0.022 (+0.766..+0.810) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.212) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 minutes 32 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 1859 point match pip: 149
score: 3
Blue is peeverXGID=cBbaDBBbBcCbb:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.69% (G:27.55% B:1.83%) 65.51% (G:27.71% B:2.38%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.31% (G:7.57% B:0.30%) 34.49% (G:7.74% B:0.31%) Cubeless Equities +0.570 +1.153 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.693 ±0.014 (+0.679..+0.707) Double/Take: +0.634 (0.059) ±0.021 (+0.613..+0.655) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.307) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.9% Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 40 minutes 18 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 5. White has improved his stock a bit by making some progress with his back checkers, Blue no longer has a double.
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 172Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 156
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=bBbCBBaabCcCbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.00% (G:24.17% B:1.41%) 65.02% (G:24.29% B:1.41%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.00% (G:8.46% B:0.35%) 34.98% (G:8.55% B:0.34%) Cubeless Equities +0.468 +0.937 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.702 ±0.010 (+0.692..+0.712) Double/Take: +0.666 (0.036) ±0.012 (+0.653..+0.678) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.298) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 57 minutes 54 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 1726 point match pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=bBbCBBaabCcCbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:6:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.02% (G:24.47% B:1.39%) 65.08% (G:24.54% B:1.48%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.98% (G:8.51% B:0.45%) 34.92% (G:8.78% B:0.63%) Cubeless Equities +0.494 +1.047 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.764 (0.014) ±0.009 (+0.755..+0.773) Double/Take: +0.778 ±0.012 (+0.767..+0.790) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.222) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 97.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 6. Blue leads by only 21 pips and has seen his stock go down. Although at first glance it may appear that White owns only a twoprime, if Blue rolls 22, he is in for a bit of a unpleasant surprise.
White is Petko
score: 0
pip: 169Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 148
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=bBbCBBbbDbaBbb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.76% (G:22.72% B:1.22%) 63.70% (G:22.75% B:1.15%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.24% (G:8.49% B:0.32%) 36.30% (G:8.50% B:0.36%) Cubeless Equities +0.426 +0.849 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.625 ±0.019 (+0.605..+0.644) Double/Take: +0.563 (0.061) ±0.022 (+0.541..+0.586) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.375) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.3% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 minutes 35 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Petko
score: 5
pip: 1699 point match pip: 148
score: 5
Blue is peeverXGID=bBbCBBbbDbaBbb:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.91% (G:22.98% B:3.25%) 63.81% (G:23.27% B:4.69%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.09% (G:8.47% B:0.57%) 36.19% (G:8.79% B:0.73%) Cubeless Equities +0.530 +1.323 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.809 (0.017) ±0.007 (+0.802..+0.816) Double/Take: +0.826 ±0.008 (+0.818..+0.835) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.174) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.9% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 10 hours 19 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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