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OLM 20141213A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 15 December 2014, at 1:04 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141213A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (kruidenbuiltje)

A lot of immediate variations? It has to be immediate or you'll have had a chance to make the bar point or use it to make the two point. So the opponent leaves a shot immediately in 12/36 games (we'll not treat the double shot leaving [65] as special for this exercise and just include it in the other games) We will hit on average in 1/3rd of those (actually 11/36 in all but the [65] scenario so rounding up will help smooth our estimates out). Now we're talking about 4 games. In those 4 games 2/12 of our hitting numbers will hit and cover. On top of that he needs to throw a 1/6 shot when we don't cover for it to matter. Sounds like easily less than a game out of thirty six. The planning of not playing 14, 7 is too short term, too short sighted.

Stick

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