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Money & DMP rollouts

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 15 December 2014, at 3:54 p.m.

In Response To: D1 for White (John O'Hagan)

This position came up in our local club tourney this past Saturday. I played 4/2*(2) and that is correct for money. It looked close between this play and 9/6 1/off at DMP but switching points certainly wins more gammons. You can win a g if Black dances forever or after the 54-5x sequence. Switching from 4 to 2 is better than from 3 to 2 since it's easier to clear against a phantom 4 point game than a 3.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 60
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-DaBBCC--A----a--b-babbbb-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
to play 11

1.Rollout14/2*(2) eq: +0.826
Player:
Opponent:
89.76% (G:5.77% B:0.03%)
10.24% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.823...+0.829) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
2.Rollout19/6 1/Offeq: +0.814 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
91.00% (G:2.08% B:0.02%)
9.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.810...+0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
3.Rollout19/8 5/4 3/2*(2) eq: +0.791 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
88.24% (G:5.69% B:0.03%)
11.76% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.788...+0.793) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
4.Rollout19/6 5/4eq: +0.790 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
90.26% (G:1.33% B:0.01%)
9.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.787...+0.793) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds
5.Rollout15/2* 2/1eq: +0.787 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
88.98% (G:3.99% B:0.02%)
11.02% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.784...+0.791) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
6.Rollout19/8 6/5 3/2*(2) eq: +0.778 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
87.89% (G:5.40% B:0.03%)
12.11% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.776...+0.781) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
7.Rollout19/7 3/2*(2) eq: +0.776 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
87.56% (G:6.12% B:0.04%)
12.44% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.774...+0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
8.Rollout16/4 3/2*(2) eq: +0.768 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
87.24% (G:5.94% B:0.04%)
12.76% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.765...+0.771) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.7 seconds
9.Rollout19/5eq: +0.768 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
89.08% (G:1.61% B:0.01%)
10.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.764...+0.771) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

Gammons are meaningless at DMP so 9/6 1/off comes out on top. This play leaves no blotting numbers on your next shake, gives you a handful of jokers that PoH or switch, while only 66,64,54 leave a position where you will probably have to leave a direct shot. Remember that leaving a 17/1 fly shot now gets hit more often than leaving no shots now but a position where 6 of your next rolls leave an eleven number direct shot next time (2/36 x 36/36 vs. 6/36 x 11/36).

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87
1 point match
pip: 60
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-DaBBCC--A----a--b-babbbb-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
to play 11

1.Rollout19/6 1/Offeq: +0.819
Player:
Opponent:
90.96% (G:4.44% B:0.09%)
9.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.817...+0.822) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
2.Rollout19/6 5/4eq: +0.807 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
90.36% (G:3.03% B:0.03%)
9.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.805...+0.809) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
3.Rollout14/2*(2) eq: +0.799 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
89.97% (G:5.84% B:0.02%)
10.03% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.797...+0.801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
4.Rollout19/5eq: +0.781 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
89.06% (G:3.10% B:0.03%)
10.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.779...+0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds
5.Rollout15/2* 2/1eq: +0.781 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
89.06% (G:4.88% B:0.04%)
10.94% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.779...+0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
6.Rollout19/8 5/4 3/2*(2) eq: +0.770 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
88.49% (G:7.23% B:0.02%)
11.51% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.768...+0.772) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
7.Rollout19/8 6/5 3/2*(2) eq: +0.760 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
88.01% (G:5.94% B:0.04%)
11.99% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.758...+0.762) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
8.Rollout19/7 3/2*(2) eq: +0.760 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
87.98% (G:6.33% B:0.03%)
12.02% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.758...+0.762) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
9.Rollout16/4 3/2*(2) eq: +0.743 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
87.16% (G:6.75% B:0.02%)
12.84% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.741...+0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.2 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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