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XG 3 Ply Error #1 - All Plies

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 15 December 2014, at 10:19 p.m.

In Response To: XG 3 Ply Error #1 (Stick)

I will assume without any responses that everyone would have played 8/4 6/5, 7/3 6/3, or maybe 8/4 7/6? Little did you know that depending on the ply of analysis anything other than either 7/2 or 6/5 6/2 is potentially a blunder!? Even a rollout supports these plays. Is there any chance they're really best?

3 Ply





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAAACBBb---Ba--abbcbb---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.3-ply7/2eq: +0.401
Player:
Opponent:
74.22% (G:1.27% B:0.01%)
25.78% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
2.3-ply6/5 6/2eq: +0.394 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
74.14% (G:0.82% B:0.00%)
25.86% (G:0.61% B:0.00%)
3.3-ply8/4 7/6eq: +0.342 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
71.88% (G:0.63% B:0.00%)
28.12% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
4.3-ply8/4 6/5eq: +0.313 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
70.77% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
29.23% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
5.3-ply7/3 6/5eq: +0.304 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
70.41% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
29.59% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

4 Ply





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAAACBBb---Ba--abbcbb---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.4-ply7/2eq: +0.388
Player:
Opponent:
73.31% (G:2.36% B:0.02%)
26.69% (G:1.07% B:0.01%)
2.4-ply6/5 6/2eq: +0.381 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
73.24% (G:1.82% B:0.02%)
26.76% (G:1.08% B:0.01%)
3.4-ply8/4 7/6eq: +0.362 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
72.48% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
27.52% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
4.4-ply8/4 6/5eq: +0.329 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
71.34% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
28.66% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply7/3 6/5eq: +0.322 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
71.07% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
28.93% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

XGR+





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAAACBBb---Ba--abbcbb---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+6/5 6/2eq: +0.426
Player:
Opponent:
74.65% (G:1.92% B:0.02%)
25.35% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller+7/2eq: +0.425 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
74.62% (G:1.98% B:0.02%)
25.38% (G:0.67% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller+8/4 6/5eq: +0.339 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
71.58% (G:0.58% B:0.01%)
28.42% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller+7/3 6/5eq: +0.329 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
71.26% (G:0.42% B:0.00%)
28.74% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller+8/4 7/6eq: +0.329 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
71.14% (G:0.57% B:0.00%)
28.86% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

XGR++





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAAACBBb---Ba--abbcbb---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller++6/5 6/2eq: +0.373
Player:
Opponent:
72.76% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
27.24% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++7/2eq: +0.371 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
72.49% (G:1.25% B:0.01%)
27.51% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 6/5eq: +0.334 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
71.39% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
28.61% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++7/3 6/5eq: +0.328 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
71.13% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
28.87% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller++8/4 7/6eq: +0.314 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
70.56% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
29.44% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

Rollout





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAAACBBb---Ba--abbcbb---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.369
Player:
Opponent:
72.33% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
27.67% (G:0.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.363...+0.375) - [50.8%]
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout17/2eq: +0.369 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
72.23% (G:1.07% B:0.02%)
27.77% (G:0.76% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.363...+0.375) - [49.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/5eq: +0.334 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
70.91% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)
29.09% (G:0.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.327...+0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
4.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: +0.327 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
70.59% (G:0.25% B:0.01%)
29.41% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.321...+0.334) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 7/6eq: +0.324 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
70.43% (G:0.30% B:0.02%)
29.57% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.318...+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41925206
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

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