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Is this typical? RO and the "deep thought"

Posted By: svilo
Date: Tuesday, 16 December 2014, at 9:57 p.m.

In Response To: Is this typical? (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 83
7 point match
pip: 98
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABcBBBBBB-----------cbg-:1:-1:1:31:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout18/5 3/2eq: +0.752
Player:
Opponent:
80.11% (G:18.31% B:0.64%)
19.89% (G:1.42% B:0.04%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.744...+0.759) - [84.2%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout17/3eq: +0.746 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
80.20% (G:17.52% B:0.61%)
19.80% (G:1.38% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.738...+0.754) - [15.8%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 2/1eq: +0.735 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
80.09% (G:17.13% B:0.53%)
19.91% (G:1.30% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.727...+0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout15/1eq: +0.732 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
80.89% (G:15.07% B:0.50%)
19.11% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.725...+0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout19/5eq: +0.714 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
79.15% (G:17.04% B:0.63%)
20.85% (G:1.32% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.708...+0.721) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Bare in from the nearest TRAP FORCING point will give most gammons, other things equal. Maximum contact. But 7/3 has a flaw - 3 men on the 3 point. Other plays than 8/5 3/2 ; and 8/5 2/1 win even less games in addition to less gamons .A holding game from the Silver anchor still has running chances even with 3 men back. Staying on the 4 point longer will diminish his gammon danger. Forcing him to run and hit with a straggler on a lower point may either get him shot and hit at an inappropriate time or may force him to leave and break the stripped Silver anchor and be gammoned or closed out for a single game at least. Typical position. Wonder how many will solve it OTB. I did not. RIGHTLY nobody considered 7/3 as a candidate, but it is only the third after the above. It IS THE NEAREST FORCED TRAP Point. The problem with trapping on the 6 or 5 points is, first of all that they are not forced! Second clearing wholly or partly a home board point here is a priming play not trapping. Clearing the 9 or 10 points I thought would work better as a safe play than as a trapping play against a high anchor with surplus. I was not right. Clearing a high point completely is just letting the lion out of the zoo, but the barein tecknique helps produce more wins and gammons.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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