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Isight insight: 1 pip = 2% (according to model).

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Wednesday, 17 December 2014, at 10:49 p.m.

Perhaps this has already been reported and I missed it. If so, here's a review:

Isight is a great advance in estimating money-game cube action from adjusted pip counts. It provides an adjustment method and cube action criteria that are easy to use and more accurate than prior methods.

It also provides a separate formula for estimating CPW based on adjusted pip count that has come under some criticism. What wasn't clear to me from the paper, and what I haven't seen in any discussion, is that the CPW estimation formula:

reduces exactly to:

Each pip in either direction from Last Take (76%) is worth exactly 2%.

I'm not smart enough to prove this with algebra. I just created a spreadsheet to find the value of an Isight pip and found that in races from 75 to 55 (leader), with leads ranging from 9 pips greater than Last Take to 9 pips fewer than Last Take, in all cases a pip is worth exactly 2%. (Confirmation from any interested party would be appreciated.)

This has two practical implications.

1. There is no need to learn the Isight formula for CPW.
Just use the easier criterion for Last Take:

and then adjust 2% for each pip from there.

2. We know there are better adjustments than this.

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