This came in a game against XG. I was White and on the receiving side of the cube. The cube is clear for the obvious reasons. The take seemed clear to me and I didn't hesitate thinking that as bad as the position is Blue still has no additional inside points and a blot in his board. XG++ evaluated it as close to a blunder which got me to roll my sleeves and try to figure why I am getting badly dinged for a cube position that looked straightforward to me.
After further looking and understanding the position, I can see the logic in passing, which some correctly pointed and I will add that the blot on the deuce is a big liability whether it is hit or not. In fact, unless Blue gets a hit and cover sequence he prefers to cover with most numbers rather than hit, even 42 should be played b/21, 6/4. And White has so much mess that even with a joker in the next roll he is still strongly dominated.
This was a good lesson that there are cases where cubing from the bar in a seemingly virgin-like position could be a pass.
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| XGID=-c---ADBD---ba-aBb-e---aAA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.24% (G:28.81% B:3.53%) | 68.83% (G:30.05% B:4.14%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.76% (G:7.54% B:0.30%) | 31.17% (G:7.61% B:0.34%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.630 | +1.278 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.811 (-0.189) | ±0.007 (+0.804..+0.818) |
| Double/Take: | +1.031 (+0.031) | ±0.013 (+1.018..+1.045) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88627522 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 43 minutes 36 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10