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OLM 20141219B The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2014, at 9:45 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141219B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

24/18 8/6 is the gammon-save move.

After this move white has 43 pips to go and blue 38 to save the gammon.

The white position has a waste of about 13 pips.

I estimate the blue waste (for crossing over) is about 6 pips.

So effectively after this move the race is 56 vs. 44.

With blue to move that is 44 vs. 48, a 9% lead.

That is a redouble point, this is about 72% chance of saving the gammon.

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Playing 8/2 wastes 4 pips, sorry 3 pips, that is about 6% gammons.

A hitchance will occur after {64,54,D3} = 5/36 x 11/36 (hits) = 4%.

And we need 12% wins to compensate for the gammons at equal matchscore.

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What about wasting one pip (with 11/5 8/6) to prevent white from hitting with a 1-2-3 combination.

Such a combination occurs 9/36 times + D4 = 10/36.

The cost of such a hit is 9/36 x 25/36 (fan-chance) x 8 pips = 1800/1296 pips = about 1,5 pip and more after further fanning.

So wasting one pip is worthwhile.

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Further waste in the form of playing 11/5 6/4 does not seem worthwhile, since our hitchance (if any) will probably occur on the next move.

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Answer: 11/5 8/6

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