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OLM 20141223B The Prime Factors

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 24 December 2014, at 5:23 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141223B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

In order to win, we need four things to happen:

  1. Dillies leave a blot 6 times in 36 (65, 64, 54).
  2. We hit (11/36).
  3. We close the Dillies out (say 1/2).
  4. We win from position where Dillies have 8 checkers off and 1 on the bar (say 1/2, but perhaps more).

(6/36)*(11/36)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 1.3%

Against that, we have the repeated chance the Dillies will throw a doublet that rips four checkers off. If that were to happen, our gammon-saving chances would diminish significantly (if we stay for a shot on this turn). On their first turn, the Dillies can rip four with 3 doublets, and after that, possibly more.

Of course, we might also lose a gammon when the Dillies do not roll a doublet.

Without doing any further calculation, let me guess that we do better to run.

R (Run) = 24/17

Mike

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