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OLM 20141223B The Prime Factors

Posted By: Havard Raddum
Date: Wednesday, 24 December 2014, at 11:10 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141223B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

I count six rolls that leave us a shot, of which we hit 1/3 of the time, and then we are only slight favorites to win even from there. So that's like what, 3-5% wins by staying? Do we increase gammon losses by 10%+ by staying? I think we do. We should be very unlucky to not save the gammon by running now. We should also be favorites to save it by staying, but it's less clear. The small numbers that are bad for their race POH, etc. So I say we call it a day and go.

24/17

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