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OLM 20141223B The Prime Factors

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 1:03 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141223B The Prime Factors (Bob Koca)

I think you are right. With cube access, our effective win rate must be more the the 50% you get against 8 off and 1 on the roof at DMP.

I stopped calculating when I saw the 1.3%. Both sides are equally likely to roll a doublet, but in our case, doing so gains only a little in terms of saving the gammon. As things stand, we won't usually need a doublet to beat the gammon. If the Dillies roll a doublet, however, that swings the gammon rate by a lot. With 66, 55, and 44 working for them, that gives them a 3/36 = 8.33% chance to do so on each of the next four rolls. My estimate was that the compound chance of that happening, plus the increased gammon chance we would surrender by staying back (when they did not roll a doublet) must be more than double our winning chances. Suppose, for instance, I was wrong by a factor of 2. At 2.6% winning chances, I still think we should run now.

I admit, however, that my computations are anything but precise. You are not alone in pointing out that this could be much closer than I think. Casper, and probably others, are on board with you too.

Mike

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