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51S-42P-66O-41 -- Rollout and variants (51S-53P-66O-41 and 51S-31P-66O-41)

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 26 December 2014, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: 51S-42P-66O-41 (Igor)

Hitting two and building with 13/8 are virtually tied.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---bE---bbe---bB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout16/2* 2/1* eq: -0.157
Player:
Opponent:
47.00% (G:14.95% B:0.51%)
53.00% (G:19.20% B:1.68%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.161...-0.153) - [96.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.162 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
46.74% (G:13.83% B:0.60%)
53.26% (G:18.21% B:1.39%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.166...-0.159) - [3.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28529924
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

But make our home board a hair weaker (51S-53P-66O-41) and 13/8 is best.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB--D-B---bE---bbe---bB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout113/8eq: -0.279
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:12.79% B:0.56%)
56.14% (G:18.97% B:1.39%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.283...-0.274) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout16/2* 2/1* eq: -0.292 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
43.74% (G:13.89% B:0.46%)
56.26% (G:20.35% B:1.70%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.297...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61143082
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Finally, if our 5pt is made instead (51S-31P-66O-41), then the ace can be played 6/5. Even though our blot on the 9pt is subject to 8 shots, our structure vs. white's structure indicates we should be looking for a priming game.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BD-B---bE---bbe---bB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.033
Player:
Opponent:
50.12% (G:14.77% B:0.66%)
49.88% (G:17.60% B:1.51%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.037...-0.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.044 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
49.48% (G:14.79% B:0.65%)
50.52% (G:16.89% B:1.27%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.047...-0.040) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout26/2* 2/1* eq: -0.088 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
48.68% (G:15.61% B:0.52%)
51.32% (G:18.88% B:1.61%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.097...-0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 37 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58887020
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58887020
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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