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Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 26 December 2014, at 4:39 p.m.

In Response To: Revised Baffle Box Rules--you know better (Phil Simborg)

1)

A) Roll a single precision die through a Simborg box (of your choice). Roll a second die through the box, dropping it vertically but at a random location (in terms of the rectangular box opening). Call P(U) the (Unintentional) probability of the second die changing the first die's value.

B) Begin as in A (rolling the first die) but then (still dropping vertically) choose an entrance point so as to maximize the chances of changing the first die. Call the expectation of this Intentional change P(I).

C) What value P(C) should one choose for a money-wagered 'Contest' such that a statistically significant result is 90% likely to be measured in a reasonable time between the two contestants? (Keep in mind that each is putting up his own $ so the vig should be shared between them.) Let's set "reasonable amount of time" as 4 hours and "statistically significant result" as 90% confidence.

2) Start with a Simborg box and two non-precision dice with drilled out pips (but with rounded corners -- similar to what many cheapo sets of the last 40 years have as standard equipment). Drop the dice vertically into the box. Have an assistant record the results. Let's assume 4 seconds per diceroll, on average. How much actual data collection time do you estimate to reach 95% confidence that you get more than random expected 66 rolls?

Messages In This Thread

• Revised Baffle Box Rules
  Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 4:37 p.m.
  • Two boxes available
    Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 4:50 p.m.
    • Two boxes available
      Seth -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 8:44 p.m.
    • Two boxes available
      Fatboy -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 11:02 p.m.
  • Opening roll using a baffle box.
    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 6:46 p.m.
    • +1 *NM* *NM*
      tuvi -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 8:07 p.m.
  • Revised Baffle Box Rules
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 10:11 p.m.
    • Revised Baffle Box Rules--you know better
      Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 25 December 2014, at 11:32 p.m.
      • Malcolm has a different solution
        Phil Simborg -- Friday, 26 December 2014, at 2:17 p.m.
        • Malcolm has a different solution
          Jason Lee -- Friday, 26 December 2014, at 2:50 p.m.
          • Malcolm has a different solution
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 26 December 2014, at 4:00 p.m.
      • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 26 December 2014, at 4:39 p.m.
        • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
          sita -- Friday, 26 December 2014, at 5:00 p.m.
          • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 28 December 2014, at 4:04 p.m.
            • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
              sita -- Sunday, 28 December 2014, at 7:57 p.m.
              • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
                Colin Owen -- Sunday, 28 December 2014, at 11:11 p.m.
                • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
                  sita -- Monday, 29 December 2014, at 4:06 p.m.
                  • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
                    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 30 December 2014, at 3:33 a.m.
                  • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
                    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 30 December 2014, at 1:51 p.m.
                    • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
                      sita -- Tuesday, 30 December 2014, at 3:51 p.m.
                      • Two questions / challenges appropriate to this thread
                        Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 30 December 2014, at 7:43 p.m.