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OLM 20141229A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Monday, 29 December 2014, at 9:05 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141229A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

7/6 3/1

Three plays to look at: 11/9 7/6, 7/6 3/1 and 7/6 4/2. The first gives 17 good rolls and no 2 roll sequence misses; the second 18 good rolls and no 2 roll sequence misses; the third 19 immediate good rolls, but fails on 21 followed by 21 and 32 (assuming you play the 21 11/9 2/1).

The first play is dominated by the second, so out it goes. Then, protecting against bad 2 roll sequences is sufficiently more important (between 5 or 6 times more important; I did not do this calculation exactly) than creating an immediate extra bear-off number that 3/1 should be barely correct.

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